MIKE REDMAYNE
- Published in print:
- 2001
- Published Online:
- January 2010
- ISBN:
- 9780198267805
- eISBN:
- 9780191714856
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198267805.003.0004
- Subject:
- Law, Criminal Law and Criminology
This chapter begins by discussing several problems in presenting the probabilities in court. It then makes an analysis of how probabilities are evaluated in court through empirical research. It also ...
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This chapter begins by discussing several problems in presenting the probabilities in court. It then makes an analysis of how probabilities are evaluated in court through empirical research. It also discusses the use of likelihood ratios in verbal conventions, frequencies, error rates, specifying alternative hypotheses, and precision and pragmatism. Moreover, it presents several database problems encountered and other evidence types used when presenting statistical evidence in courts.Less
This chapter begins by discussing several problems in presenting the probabilities in court. It then makes an analysis of how probabilities are evaluated in court through empirical research. It also discusses the use of likelihood ratios in verbal conventions, frequencies, error rates, specifying alternative hypotheses, and precision and pragmatism. Moreover, it presents several database problems encountered and other evidence types used when presenting statistical evidence in courts.
Therese M. Donovan and Ruth M. Mickey
- Published in print:
- 2019
- Published Online:
- July 2019
- ISBN:
- 9780198841296
- eISBN:
- 9780191876820
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/oso/9780198841296.003.0004
- Subject:
- Biology, Biomathematics / Statistics and Data Analysis / Complexity Studies
Chapter 4 introduces the concept of Bayesian inference. The chapter discusses the scientific method, and illustrates how Bayes’ Theorem can be used for scientific inference. Bayesian inference is the ...
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Chapter 4 introduces the concept of Bayesian inference. The chapter discusses the scientific method, and illustrates how Bayes’ Theorem can be used for scientific inference. Bayesian inference is the use of Bayes’ Theorem to draw conclusions about a set of mutually exclusive and exhaustive alternative hypotheses by linking prior knowledge about each hypothesis with new data. The result is updated probabilities for each hypothesis of interest. By the end of this chapter, the reader will understand the concepts of induction and deduction, prior probability of a hypothesis, likelihood of the observed data, and posterior probability of a hypothesis, given the data.Less
Chapter 4 introduces the concept of Bayesian inference. The chapter discusses the scientific method, and illustrates how Bayes’ Theorem can be used for scientific inference. Bayesian inference is the use of Bayes’ Theorem to draw conclusions about a set of mutually exclusive and exhaustive alternative hypotheses by linking prior knowledge about each hypothesis with new data. The result is updated probabilities for each hypothesis of interest. By the end of this chapter, the reader will understand the concepts of induction and deduction, prior probability of a hypothesis, likelihood of the observed data, and posterior probability of a hypothesis, given the data.
Therese M. Donovan and Ruth M. Mickey
- Published in print:
- 2019
- Published Online:
- July 2019
- ISBN:
- 9780198841296
- eISBN:
- 9780191876820
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/oso/9780198841296.003.0005
- Subject:
- Biology, Biomathematics / Statistics and Data Analysis / Complexity Studies
The “Author Problem” provides a concrete example of Bayesian inference. This chapter draws on work by Frederick Mosteller and David Wallace, who used Bayesian inference to assign authorship for ...
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The “Author Problem” provides a concrete example of Bayesian inference. This chapter draws on work by Frederick Mosteller and David Wallace, who used Bayesian inference to assign authorship for unsigned Federalist Papers. The Federalist Papers were a collection of papers known to be written during the American Revolution. However, some papers were unsigned by the author, resulting in disputed authorship. The chapter provides a very basic Bayesian analysis of the unsigned “Paper 54,” which was written by Alexander Hamilton or James Madison. The example illustrates the principles of Bayesian inference for two competing hypotheses, including the concepts of alternative hypothesis, prior probability distribution, posterior probability distribution, prior probability of a hypothesis, likelihood of the observed data, and posterior probability of a hypothesis.Less
The “Author Problem” provides a concrete example of Bayesian inference. This chapter draws on work by Frederick Mosteller and David Wallace, who used Bayesian inference to assign authorship for unsigned Federalist Papers. The Federalist Papers were a collection of papers known to be written during the American Revolution. However, some papers were unsigned by the author, resulting in disputed authorship. The chapter provides a very basic Bayesian analysis of the unsigned “Paper 54,” which was written by Alexander Hamilton or James Madison. The example illustrates the principles of Bayesian inference for two competing hypotheses, including the concepts of alternative hypothesis, prior probability distribution, posterior probability distribution, prior probability of a hypothesis, likelihood of the observed data, and posterior probability of a hypothesis.
Frederick R. Schram and Stefan Koenemann
- Published in print:
- 2021
- Published Online:
- January 2022
- ISBN:
- 9780195365764
- eISBN:
- 9780197521854
- Item type:
- book
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/oso/9780195365764.001.0001
- Subject:
- Biology, Aquatic Biology
The understanding of arthropod phylogeny and evolution in the past three decades has undergone major changes. These have arisen from new sources of data applicable across several fields of study. ...
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The understanding of arthropod phylogeny and evolution in the past three decades has undergone major changes. These have arisen from new sources of data applicable across several fields of study. Developments within ontogenetic studies not only in regard to gross patterns of embryology but also regarding a revolution in the application of development genetics continue to generate remarkable insights into crustaceomorph evolution. Phylogeny techniques of analysis and new sources of data derived from molecular sequencing have forced consideration of new hypotheses concerning the interrelationships of all the pancrustaceans, both crustaceomorphs and Hexapoda. Furthermore, it is not uncommon that this multiplicity of sources for new data from opposing research teams can result in different hypotheses for phylogenetic relationships. This situation should not be treated as a defect, or an impediment, but rather as a source for multiple alternative hypotheses—the bases for further data gathering and analyses. Also, one should never view consideration of fossils as a vexing source of noise. Here, too, consideration of multiple hypotheses has proven useful. Often, fossils can produce deeper understanding of the paleodiversity of body plans. Nevertheless, some fossil groups still remain as enigmas, such as Thylacocephala. But even fossils incompletely understood can help fill in gaps in knowledge of paleobiodiversity that can prove useful, for example, in analyzing the the origin and early evolution of Hexapoda. Old ideas about pancrustacean evolution have served the field well, but results derived from all data inputs should be embraced.Less
The understanding of arthropod phylogeny and evolution in the past three decades has undergone major changes. These have arisen from new sources of data applicable across several fields of study. Developments within ontogenetic studies not only in regard to gross patterns of embryology but also regarding a revolution in the application of development genetics continue to generate remarkable insights into crustaceomorph evolution. Phylogeny techniques of analysis and new sources of data derived from molecular sequencing have forced consideration of new hypotheses concerning the interrelationships of all the pancrustaceans, both crustaceomorphs and Hexapoda. Furthermore, it is not uncommon that this multiplicity of sources for new data from opposing research teams can result in different hypotheses for phylogenetic relationships. This situation should not be treated as a defect, or an impediment, but rather as a source for multiple alternative hypotheses—the bases for further data gathering and analyses. Also, one should never view consideration of fossils as a vexing source of noise. Here, too, consideration of multiple hypotheses has proven useful. Often, fossils can produce deeper understanding of the paleodiversity of body plans. Nevertheless, some fossil groups still remain as enigmas, such as Thylacocephala. But even fossils incompletely understood can help fill in gaps in knowledge of paleobiodiversity that can prove useful, for example, in analyzing the the origin and early evolution of Hexapoda. Old ideas about pancrustacean evolution have served the field well, but results derived from all data inputs should be embraced.
Robert J. Fogelin
- Published in print:
- 2017
- Published Online:
- August 2017
- ISBN:
- 9780190673505
- eISBN:
- 9780190673536
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/oso/9780190673505.003.0008
- Subject:
- Philosophy, History of Philosophy
Philo expands on the nature of his objections to the natural religion of Cleanthes: far-fetched comparisons are dismissed in matters of common life, but are appropriate objections when we rise to the ...
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Philo expands on the nature of his objections to the natural religion of Cleanthes: far-fetched comparisons are dismissed in matters of common life, but are appropriate objections when we rise to the level of abstruse and remote reasoning. He offers a counterargument to the design-designer hypothesis, citing Epicurus. Constancy and change are discussed; cloud formation is one example. Philo’s critique of Cleanthes’ argument from design moves through stages, with striking similarity to Agrippa’s suspension of belief as presented by Sextus Empiricus.Less
Philo expands on the nature of his objections to the natural religion of Cleanthes: far-fetched comparisons are dismissed in matters of common life, but are appropriate objections when we rise to the level of abstruse and remote reasoning. He offers a counterargument to the design-designer hypothesis, citing Epicurus. Constancy and change are discussed; cloud formation is one example. Philo’s critique of Cleanthes’ argument from design moves through stages, with striking similarity to Agrippa’s suspension of belief as presented by Sextus Empiricus.
Lena Palaniyappan and Rajeev Krishnadas
- Published in print:
- 2010
- Published Online:
- November 2020
- ISBN:
- 9780199553617
- eISBN:
- 9780191917813
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/oso/9780199553617.003.0012
- Subject:
- Clinical Medicine and Allied Health, Professional Development in Medicine
Questions
A study is evaluating the effect of agomelatine on postnatal depression at a mother and baby unit. Which one of the following should be considered when assessing the internal validity of ...
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Questions
A study is evaluating the effect of agomelatine on postnatal depression at a mother and baby unit. Which one of the following should be considered when assessing the internal validity of this study?
Benefits of agomelatine in major depression outside the postpartum period...Less
Questions
A study is evaluating the effect of agomelatine on postnatal depression at a mother and baby unit. Which one of the following should be considered when assessing the internal validity of this study?
Benefits of agomelatine in major depression outside the postpartum period...
Robert J. Fogelin
- Published in print:
- 2017
- Published Online:
- August 2017
- ISBN:
- 9780190673505
- eISBN:
- 9780190673536
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/oso/9780190673505.003.0007
- Subject:
- Philosophy, History of Philosophy
Demea, Philo, and Hume himself find that a finite deity—the best that natural theology can produce—is unsatisfactory for veneration and worship. Alternative starting places for the teleological ...
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Demea, Philo, and Hume himself find that a finite deity—the best that natural theology can produce—is unsatisfactory for veneration and worship. Alternative starting places for the teleological argument are given: comparisons to an animal or a vegetable, rather than machine.Less
Demea, Philo, and Hume himself find that a finite deity—the best that natural theology can produce—is unsatisfactory for veneration and worship. Alternative starting places for the teleological argument are given: comparisons to an animal or a vegetable, rather than machine.
Raymond W. Gibbs
- Published in print:
- 2018
- Published Online:
- January 2018
- ISBN:
- 9780190457747
- eISBN:
- 9780190457761
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/oso/9780190457747.003.0014
- Subject:
- Linguistics, Psycholinguistics / Neurolinguistics / Cognitive Linguistics
What is the future of scholarship in cognitive poetics? This chapter provides a guide for possible new directions in the study of cognitive poetic experience. I claim that cognitive poetics can ...
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What is the future of scholarship in cognitive poetics? This chapter provides a guide for possible new directions in the study of cognitive poetic experience. I claim that cognitive poetics can become a distinctive field of study if it embraces certain methodological and theoretical principles. These include attention to a wide range of different poetic experiences both within and across people, acknowledging both generalities and variations in how people create and interpret poetic artifacts, making scholars’ intuitive judgments more transparent in our reports of different research findings, addressing alternative hypotheses for different patterns of data, recognizing the different ways in which “understanding” may occur and be theoretically explained, and seeking connections between cognitive and noncognitive factors that shape people cognitive poetic experiences. We must embrace these new empirical challenges with open-minded vigor and open-hearted passion to truly create better conditions for cognitive poetics to both thrive and flourish.Less
What is the future of scholarship in cognitive poetics? This chapter provides a guide for possible new directions in the study of cognitive poetic experience. I claim that cognitive poetics can become a distinctive field of study if it embraces certain methodological and theoretical principles. These include attention to a wide range of different poetic experiences both within and across people, acknowledging both generalities and variations in how people create and interpret poetic artifacts, making scholars’ intuitive judgments more transparent in our reports of different research findings, addressing alternative hypotheses for different patterns of data, recognizing the different ways in which “understanding” may occur and be theoretically explained, and seeking connections between cognitive and noncognitive factors that shape people cognitive poetic experiences. We must embrace these new empirical challenges with open-minded vigor and open-hearted passion to truly create better conditions for cognitive poetics to both thrive and flourish.
