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This work deals with the region of southern Africa in relation to democratic consolidation, dynamic modes of representation, and the mitigation of ethnic (and regional) conflict. It starts with the premise that all three objectives are desirable, and poses the question: which institutional arrangements will best facilitate effective representation, political stability, and interethnic accommodation in the emerging democracies of southern Africa? The answer to this question is sought through a comparative analysis of the effect of institutional structures in five case study countries – Malawi, Namibia, South Africa, Zambia, and Zimbabwe – chosen because all have made the transition from non-democratic government to multiparty competition with varying degrees of success, and they represent at least half of the southern African region, so they comprise a useful cross section of democratic types, societal dynamics, and institutional arrangements. The study uses a hybrid methodology drawn from both new institutionalist and cultural, ‘rich descriptive’, traditions, hence, it utilizes comparative electoral systems methodology; at the same time, the discussions of the case studies are based on detailed social and politically historical descriptions. The Introduction is arranged in five main parts which: address the relevance of question of the best institutional arrangements for democratization; define the dependent (object of study), intervening, and independent (macro-institutional explanatory) variables used in the study; explain why the focus of the study is on political institutions, and discuss various alternative approaches that could have been taken; and give an outline of the contents of the chapters that follow.

This is the first of four chapters that discusses the theoretical underpinnings of the research on democratization in southern Africa that is described in the book. It qualitatively and quantitatively assesses the trajectory of the five case studies along the lines of their political stability, ethnic accommodation, and the long-term prospects for democratic accommodation. In attempting to find useful indicators of the trajectory of democratization in each of the five country case studies, six possible approaches are considered: political violence (the measurement of politically related deaths), economic indicators, political and societal indicators (political rights and civil liberties; media freedom and influence), electoral indicators (turnout; spoilt ballots), and ethnic accommodation (worsening ethnic and interregional relations, as exemplified by Zambia and Malawi; improving ethnic relations, as exemplified by Namibia and South Africa; and ethnic relations with an uncertain trajectory, as exemplified by Zimbabwe). Eight institutional indices of democratization are chosen from these: ethnic accommodation, political violence, economic performance, civil liberties, political rights, free media, electoral turnout, and spoilt ballots. The findings on these indicators for each case study are summarised in a table.

This is the second of four chapters that discusses the theoretical underpinnings of the research on democratization in southern Africa that is described in the book, as well as providing qualitative discussions of democracy in the five country case studies used: Malawi, Namibia, South Africa, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. It first defines the intervening variable of ‘inclusion’, which is described as key to the explanation of how conflicts are best managed within divided societies, and discusses its relationship to the macro-institutional explanatory (independent) variables used in the study. It then defines and describes how to measure each of the explanatory variables used: electoral system type; democratic type (coalitions and grand coalitions – consensual– versus concentrations of executive power; fusion – majoritarian – or separation of executive and legislative powers; unicameralism or bicameralism; type of party system; issues dimensions of partisan conflict; unitary versus federal government; constitutions, minority vetoes, and judicial review); and executive type (presidential or parliamentary). The data obtained for each country are discussed, compared, and summarised in tables.

This is the third of four chapters that discusses the theoretical underpinnings of the research on democratization in southern Africa that is described in the book, and deals with the theoretical debate underlying the choice of electoral system in divided societies. The five sections of the chapter are: The Importance of Electoral Systems; The Range of Electoral Systems; What Criteria Should Electoral Systems Aim to Fulfil?; The Debate over Electoral Systems and Conflict Management in Africa (single-member district plurality, proportional representation, the alternative vote in multi-member districts (the Horowitz proposal for South Africa); and Conclusion. The overall discussion includes reference not only to four of the country case studies presented in the rest of the book (Namibia, South Africa, Zambia, and Zimbabwe) but also to numerous other countries worldwide.

This is the last of four chapters that discusses the theoretical underpinnings of the research on democratization in southern Africa that is described in the book, as well as provides qualitative discussions of democracy in the five country case studies used: Malawi, Namibia, South Africa, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. It deals with the theoretical debate underlying the debate over majoritarian or power-sharing governments in divided societies. The ethos and defining institutional characteristics of five democratic types that have, at some stage, been advocated for use in the new democracies of southern Africa are outlined: three majoritarian (unadulterated, qualified, and integrative) and two power-sharing (consociational, and consensual (integrative)). The five main sections of the chapter are: Majoritarian Democracy (unadulterated and qualified; integrative); Power-Sharing Democracy (consociationalism; integrative consensual power-sharing); The Relevance of Presidentialism; Applying the Types to Fledgling Democracies in Southern Africa; and Prescriptions for Southern Africa.

This chapter and the next describe the political histories of the case studies presented in the book, paying particular attention to their democratic transitions, institutional choices, and experience of multiparty elections. Together with Ch. 7, they form the historical, empirical, and quantitative heart of the book, providing the foundational evidence against which earlier postulated theories are gauged (Chs 1 and 2), and upon which subsequent comparisons, recommendations, and conclusions are based. Chapter 5 deals with the plurality single-member districts (SMD) case studies undertaken in Malawi and Zambia, and the proportional representation (PR) and plurality SMD case studies in Zimbabwe (which used PR for its first two elections and plurality SMD for the next three). For each case study, full numerical results are given, along with an explanation of the electoral system formula and how that system came to be used; also included are summaries of the implications, for both parties and government, of election results, defining aspects of each newly elected parliament, and the election campaign that preceded it; the question of the validity and legitimacy of each published result is also addressed. A re-running exercise is carried out in Ch. 7 that uses the results presented here, and is based on the alternative vote in single-member districts (AV-SMD), the alternative vote in multi-member districts (AV-MMD), list PR in regionally defined multi-member districts, and list PR in one national multi-member districts; the list PR elections held in Zimbabwe are also re-run in Ch. 7 under plurality SMD, AV-SMD, and AV-SMD, together with the list PR method not utilized in the actual elections.

Together with Chs 5 and 6, Ch. 7 forms the historical, empirical, and quantitative heart of the book, providing the foundational evidence against which earlier postulated theories are gauged (Ch 1 and 2), and upon which subsequent comparisons, recommendations, and conclusions are based. Chapter 7 deals with the methodology used for an election re-running exercise under alternative electoral systems, presents the results obtained for each of the five country case studies presented in the book, and discusses the practical implications of each set of re-running observations, as well as the positive and negative consequences for stability and representative government; further details of the methods used for crafting districts for re-runs are given in an appendix at the end of the book. The chapter first discusses the importance of re-running evidence, and second, outlines the range of alternative electoral systems used for the re-runnings, justifying their inclusion in the exercise, and addressing the underlying assumptions and methodological objections. Third, results are given of plurality single-member districts (SMD) elections re-run in Malawi, Zambia, and Zimbabwe under the alternative vote in single-member districts (AV-SMD), the alternative vote in multi-member districts (AV-MMD), list proportional representation (PR) in regionally defined multi-member districts, and list PR in one national multi-member district. Finally, the results are given of re-running the list PR elections held in Zimbabwe, South Africa, and Namibia under plurality SMD, AV-SMD, AV-MMD, and the list PR method not utilized in the actual elections.

A comparative analysis is given of both actual and simulated election results of the five country case studies (from Malawi, Namibia, South Africa, Zambia, and Zimbabwe) presented in the book, along a number of dimensions relating to system inclusiveness: party system dynamics, disproportionality, executive formation, and descriptive representation. Chief among the questions addressed are: what determines the index of disproportionality, how representative are comparative parliaments in terms of the presence of women and ethnic minorities, what are the electoral system implications for voter accessibility, does the chosen system alleviate or accentuate entrenched and geographically concentrated party fiefdoms, how competitive or frozen is the party system, is there an electoral system effect on cabinet formation, and does the type of proportional representation (PR) used matter to the final results? The chapter concludes with a detailed discussion of the Horowitz alternative vote in multi-member districts (AV-MMD) proposal across all five case study countries, and an institutional choice-based analysis of the interaction between negotiated transitions to democracy and the type of electoral system chosen for the new democratic constitution. Overall, the chapter demonstrates that in the context of institutional design in southern Africa, PR systems outperform their plurality–majority alternatives in almost all the categories of analysis.

This concluding chapter presents comments on more recent developments in four of the cases presented in this book: northern Nigeria, Zambia, Kenya, and Zimbabwe. Topics covered include Islam in northern Nigeria, political change in Zambia, political change in Kenya, and political change in Zimbabwe.