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Hotter weather and higher atmospheric CO₂ levels will have profound effects on plants. Crops such as corn and soybeans, have critical temperature thresholds above which yields fall precipitously. High CO₂ levels will foster the growth of many weeds over crops, threatening yields. Stimulated growth and release of ragweed allergens will threaten hay fever sufferers and asthmatics. The nutrient content of many crops falls in a high CO₂ environment. As crop yields fall, prices rise, and undernutrition increases, particularly among children who fail to develop normally who, as a result, may not achieve normal intelligence. In many nations, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa, childhood undernutrition already approaches 50%. Feeding the increasing population of the world may become problematic.

The chapter focuses on how Italy’s economic growth enabled the spread of improvements in the diet of the Italian population. According to mid-nineteenth-century observers, nourishment was likely to be a daily torment for the major part of the population. In contrast, we estimate that in the aftermath of Italy’s unification (1861) the daily calories available to the average Italian exceeded 2,500, a value that is higher than that commonly used today to mark the threshold of undernutrition in developing countries. A high per-capita calorie availability is consistent with the presence of a sizable part of the population trying to make ends meet. In 1861 one person in two (perhaps even two in three) did not consume enough calories to lead a healthy life. In the case of Italy, macroeconomic data hide more than they reveal.

Some commentators argue that greater economic growth implies less absolute poverty. This is wrong. If the economic development process is accompanied by an increase in inequality, this may prevent the benefits of growth reaching the fringes of the population: the poverty and social exclusion indicators could remain the same or even worsen. The estimates presented in this chapter—based on a unique collection of household budgets covering 150 years of Italy’s history—establish a number of unknown “facts” about the incidence and depth of poverty in Italy. This knowledge enables us to evaluate how the economic progress of the country—the spectacular increase in per-capita GDP —has been distributed among the Italians and whether it reached the poorest segment of the population. No country in the world can boast an estimate of the absolute poverty trend along such a long time frame.