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The Fall and Revival of Coercive Diplomacy: Security Partnerships and Sino-American Security Relations, 1972–2009

Thomas J. Christensen

in Worse Than a Monolith: Alliance Politics and Problems of Coercive Diplomacy in Asia

This chapter examines how, in the post-Cold War era, the United States' alignment with Taiwan and alliance with Japan again have figured prominently among issues affecting U.S.-China security ... More

This chapter examines how, in the post-Cold War era, the United States' alignment with Taiwan and alliance with Japan again have figured prominently among issues affecting U.S.-China security relations. While they are far from being allies, the United States and the People's Republic of China (PRC) are not enemies either, but rather major economic partners who have also cooperated to some degree in addressing an increasing range of international problems. But there are still security tensions between the two sides over issues such as relations across the Taiwan Strait, and both nations practice coercive diplomacy toward the other, sometimes tacitly, sometimes less so. The chapter considers how the legacies of these Cold War alliances—particularly the U.S.–Taiwan relationship and the U.S.–Japan security treaty—have affected U.S.–China relations since the collapse of the Soviet Union.Less

The United States and China in Northeast Asia: Third-Party Coercion and Alliance Relations

Robert S. Ross

in Strategic Adjustment and the Rise of China: Power and Politics in East Asia

This chapter examines alliance dynamics in U.S.–China relations in Northeast Asia. It analyzes how each nation has used third-party coercive diplomacy to compel the other to restrain its allies' ... More

This chapter examines alliance dynamics in U.S.–China relations in Northeast Asia. It analyzes how each nation has used third-party coercive diplomacy to compel the other to restrain its allies' challenges to great power security. A major objective of U.S. policy toward North Korea and the corresponding tension of the Korean Peninsula has been to compel China to exercise greater control over North Korea's nuclear weapons program. A major objective of Chinese policy toward Japan and the corresponding tension in the East China Sea has been to compel the United States to restrain Japanese challenges to Chinese sovereignty claims in disputed waters in the East China Sea. For a brief period, third-party coercion contributed to greater U.S.–China cooperation as each country adjusted its policies toward its respective ally, easing regional tension and U.S.–China conflict.Less

Anti-American Protest and U.S.-China Crisis Diplomacy

Jessica Chen Weiss

in Powerful Patriots: Nationalist Protest in China's Foreign Relations

This chapter assesses the management of anti-American protests in the context of two “near crises” in U.S.-China relations. Chinese leaders viewed the 1999 bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade ... More

This chapter assesses the management of anti-American protests in the context of two “near crises” in U.S.-China relations. Chinese leaders viewed the 1999 bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade as a deliberate test of China’s resolve. By permitting anti-American protests, the Chinese government communicated its determination to stand up to U.S. bullying as well as the domestic demands it faced to take a tougher foreign policy stance. In contrast, Chinese diplomacy was aimed at reducing the perception that China posed a threat to the United States when the 2001 EP-3 collision occurred, shortly after President George W. Bush took office. By repressing nationalist protests, the Chinese government helped defuse the crisis, sending a costly signal of its intent to maintain friendly relations despite domestic accusations that the Chinese government was being too soft on the United States.Less

On the United States and China

Sebastian Rosato

in Intentions in Great Power Politics: Uncertainty and the Roots of Conflict

This chapter employs intentions pessimism to predict the future of U.S.-China relations. It begins with a review of the theory and a summary of the historical case studies described in chapters 3-6, ... More

This chapter employs intentions pessimism to predict the future of U.S.-China relations. It begins with a review of the theory and a summary of the historical case studies described in chapters 3-6, focusing on the fact that great powers have invariably been uncertain about each other’s intentions, a situation that has caused them to compete for security. The chapter then turns to U.S.-China relations from 2000 to 2020 and shows that the United States has already begun to compete with China, because Washington is acutely uncertain about Beijing’s intentions. The final section addresses the issue of the future, demonstrating that U.S. decision makers will in all likelihood be far from confident that their Chinese counterparts have benign intentions, and arguing that if China completes its rise this uncertainty will make for a considerably more intense security competition and a higher chance of war than is the case today.Less

Purposive Mass Belief Systems concerning Foreign Policy

Benjamin I. Page and Tao Xie

in Facing the Challenge of Democracy: Explorations in the Analysis of Public Opinion and Political Participation

This chapter proposes a theory of “purposive belief systems,” postulating an instrumental logic that tends to form an important foundation for citizens' policy preferences. This theory is based on ... More

This chapter proposes a theory of “purposive belief systems,” postulating an instrumental logic that tends to form an important foundation for citizens' policy preferences. This theory is based on the proposition that ordinary citizens are capable of—and tend to engage in—“rational,” instrumental, purposive reasoning about politics. Empirically, substantial evidence for the existence of such belief systems has already been found in the realm of foreign policy. This chapter illustrates and extends those findings, using recent data on the specific case of U.S.–China relations. It also explores the workings of policy preference heuristics that involve feelings toward foreign countries and investigates the ways in which such heuristics do or do not relate to purposive belief systems.Less

Conclusions

in Reluctant Restraint: The Evolution of China's Nonproliferation Policies and Practices, 1980-2004

China's behavior has changed, leading to the recognition of the value of nonproliferation. U.S. diplomacy significantly played in forcing China to extend its nonproliferation commitments. The missile ... More

China's behavior has changed, leading to the recognition of the value of nonproliferation. U.S. diplomacy significantly played in forcing China to extend its nonproliferation commitments. The missile nonproliferation case study underlines both the strengths and weaknesses of U.S. policy intervention. It is noted that Chinese acceptance of nuclear nonproliferation norms was common, and China's institutional capabilities were maturing. U.S. diplomacy had both major and supportive effect on China's nonproliferation policies and practices between 1980 and 2004. The institutional capacity of China was significant in setting up policy change. Participation of China in international forums promoted U.S. diplomacy. Realist and liberal arguments showed factors that motivated and constrained the changes in China's nonproliferation behavior. In the twenty-first century, it is hard to assure that nonproliferation cooperation becomes an enduring component of U.S.-China relations.Less

Central America and the Caribbean’s Relations with China and the United States: Contrasting Experiences! Converging Prospects?

Richard L. Bernal

in China, The United States, and the Future of Latin America: U.S.-China Relations, Volume III

The United States has been and continues to be the dominant and unchallenged global power in Central America and the Caribbean. Meanwhile, China’s economic, diplomatic, and psychological presence in ... More

The United States has been and continues to be the dominant and unchallenged global power in Central America and the Caribbean. Meanwhile, China’s economic, diplomatic, and psychological presence in the Caribbean and to a lesser extent in Costa Rica has increased during the last decade. This economic rise of China and its growing involvement in international affairs has prompted a discussion about whether China’s growing presence in the Caribbean is a trend about which the U.S. should be concerned and whether it portends a challenge by China in the way that it is jousting with the U.S. over influence in the Pacific Ocean and Asia. This chapter begins with a brief review of U.S.-China relations and the Obama administration’s China policy, and then examines the diplomatic, economic, and cultural relations between Central America and the Caribbean and China. It concludes that China’s increased presence in the Central America and the Caribbean and the deepening of its relations with some of these countries does represent a challenge to the position and traditional role of the United States in this region.Less

Chinese Nationalism and U.S.-China Relations in the Twenty-First Century

Peter Hays Gries

in China's New Nationalism: Pride, Politics, and Diplomacy

This chapter examines the relevance of Chinese nationalism in U.S.–China relations in the twenty-first century. It attempts to answer the pressing question of what China policy America should pursue ... More

This chapter examines the relevance of Chinese nationalism in U.S.–China relations in the twenty-first century. It attempts to answer the pressing question of what China policy America should pursue at the onset of the twenty-first century. The chapter highlights the existence of conflicts of material interests in U.S.–China relations today, and argues that until China and America learn to affirm, rather than threaten, each other's national identities, their mutual benefit from a stable East Asia will not ensure peace in the twenty-first century.Less

Conclusions and Comparisons to Developments in Central and Southeast Asia

David B. H. Denoon

in China, The United States, and the Future of Latin America: U.S.-China Relations, Volume III

The concluding chapter examines the U.S.-China relations from both economic and geopolitical perspectives in Latin America and Caribbean, and also in a broader context, namely, Central Asia, ... More

The concluding chapter examines the U.S.-China relations from both economic and geopolitical perspectives in Latin America and Caribbean, and also in a broader context, namely, Central Asia, Southeast Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean. China, as the rising power in Latin America and the Caribbean, is using economic and political incentives to explore how best to maximize its interests in a region, which is formerly dominated by the U.S. The U.S., on the other hand, as the status quo power in the region, finds low levels of Chinese trade and investment unthreatening, yet is likely to respond to China’s potential geopolitical ambitions in the region. In the broader context, great power politics is alive and well—both China and the U.S. are faced with their own domestic challenges influencing their presences in the three regions.Less

Visa Diplomacy: The Taiwan Independence Movement and Changing U.S.-Chinese Relations

Meredith Oyen

in The Diplomacy of Migration: Transnational Lives and the Making of U.S.-Chinese Relations in the Cold War

This chapter examines “visa diplomacy” and immigration policy changes in the 1960s in relation to the Taiwan independence movement. In line with its policies of the previous two decades for new ... More

This chapter examines “visa diplomacy” and immigration policy changes in the 1960s in relation to the Taiwan independence movement. In line with its policies of the previous two decades for new migration from Taiwan, the Nationalist government tried to control who traveled to the United States and monitor what they did there. The United States, meanwhile, could not afford to acquiesce to Taipei's every military or defensive demand but made visa decisions in such a way as to show its support for the struggling government. This chapter first considers the case of Taiwan independence activist Thomas Liao (Liao Wenyi), who was denied a visa by the Kennedy administration in 1961. It then discusses the Hart-Celler Act of 1965 and its impact on Chinese immigration to the United States. It also looks at the case of Peng Ming-min to highlight the limits of visa diplomacy and the implications of visa diplomacy for U.S.-China relations.Less

Introduction: The Floating Population and Foreign Policy

Meredith Oyen

in The Diplomacy of Migration: Transnational Lives and the Making of U.S.-Chinese Relations in the Cold War

This book examines the interconnections among human migration, foreign policy, and national security by focusing on U.S.-China relations during the Cold War. It discusses the role played by ... More

This book examines the interconnections among human migration, foreign policy, and national security by focusing on U.S.-China relations during the Cold War. It discusses the role played by “migration diplomacy”—the process of using migration policy for diplomatic ends—in managing the larger, complex relations between China and the United States in the period from 1943 to 1972. It explores three uses of migration diplomacy that emerged during this period: as a direct tool of foreign policy, as a form of public diplomacy, and as a means to remake the Chinese American community in ways that both the U.S. and Chinese governments sought. Part 1 of the book considers the role of migration policies in fighting World War II and contributing to the advance of the Cold War in Asia. Part 2 shows how Chinese migrants acted as “cold warriors”—influencing international relations both voluntarily and involuntarily. Part 3 explains how migration policy became an instrument for easing the Cold War tensions in Asia.Less

Unequal Allies: Renegotiating Exclusions

Meredith Oyen

in The Diplomacy of Migration: Transnational Lives and the Making of U.S.-Chinese Relations in the Cold War

This chapter examines the United States's decision to repeal Chinese exclusion in 1943, which has long been interpreted by scholars of U.S.-China relations and Asian-American history as a measure ... More

This chapter examines the United States's decision to repeal Chinese exclusion in 1943, which has long been interpreted by scholars of U.S.-China relations and Asian-American history as a measure driven by the exigencies of war and the requirements of foreign policy. It analyzes the context in the period from 1942 to 1946 within which the repeal decisions took place: the end of extraterritoriality, the revision of shore leave provisions for Chinese sailors, and the reconsideration of Asian exclusion as a broader topic. It argues that repeal of the Chinese exclusion laws was linked to all the other decisions that contributed to the idea of greater equality between the Chinese and American citizenry. It also discusses the legacies of exclusion and its repeal and suggests that the end of extraterritoriality, the shore leave ban, and exclusion should be understood from the standpoint of Chinese foreign policy and overseas Chinese policy.Less

Uncertainty Ahead: China Rising, U.S. Fatigued, and Central Asia Waiting on New Alignments

David B. H. Denoon

in China, The United States, and the Future of Central Asia: U.S.-China Relations, Volume I

This concluding chapter summarizes the book's main arguments and makes generalizations about the future of U.S.-China relations in Central Asia. Central Asia is not expected to become a cohesive, ... More

This concluding chapter summarizes the book's main arguments and makes generalizations about the future of U.S.-China relations in Central Asia. Central Asia is not expected to become a cohesive, integrated grouping of states. Meanwhile, the planned U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and the striking increase in shale gas production in the U.S. means that Central Asia will become less important to American policy makers in the future in both economic and strategic terms. China, however, is interested in importing hydrocarbons from Central Asia and limiting the spread of Islamic fundamentalism from Central Asia to Muslim areas inside China. Thus, although there is much discussion about a competition between the United States and China in Central Asia, the two countries have different objectives in the region and have little real competition between them.Less

Conclusion

Joyce Mao

in Asia First: China and the Making of Modern American Conservatism

This section briefly examines U.S.-China-Taiwan relations during Ronald Reagan’s tenure in the White House, a period of revision for both American conservatism and U.S. China policy. Although the ... More

This section briefly examines U.S.-China-Taiwan relations during Ronald Reagan’s tenure in the White House, a period of revision for both American conservatism and U.S. China policy. Although the working relationship that Washington and Beijing reached may have been a logical step, die-hards like Barry Goldwater still demanded reassurances for Taiwan. The 1980s were the first time the right was divided against itself on China, illustrating the divide between the original New Right and Reagan’s brand of conservatism. After summarizing the historical stakes of preceding chapters, the conclusion ends with a glance at the roles China played during the 2012 elections.Less

The Diaspora Goes to War: Human Capital and China’s Defense

Meredith Oyen

in The Diplomacy of Migration: Transnational Lives and the Making of U.S.-Chinese Relations in the Cold War

This chapter traces the roots of the Chinese Nationalists' faith in their diaspora as a major component of any political or military victory, with particular emphasis on how Chinese officials sought ... More

This chapter traces the roots of the Chinese Nationalists' faith in their diaspora as a major component of any political or military victory, with particular emphasis on how Chinese officials sought to help Chinese migrants and Chinese Americans mobilize men and money to fight the war in Asia. Nationalist China had strong incentives to maintain productive ties with the diaspora during World War II. The support of the Chinese diaspora in their overseas struggles, for example, could win their backing and remind the Allies to treat China as an equal. This chapter discusses overseas Chinese policy during World War II as it affected Chinese Americans and U.S.-China relations on three fronts: the central goals and the philosophy behind the policy, the mobilization of Chinese in the United States and elsewhere in Allied war efforts, and the solicitation of donations and remittances to aid China. It suggests that Nationalist “citizen services” in the name of the war effort form a clear example of the use of migration policy to negotiate equality for the Chinese state.Less

Introduction

Sebastian Rosato

in Intentions in Great Power Politics: Uncertainty and the Roots of Conflict

This chapter begins by explaining that the question of whether or not great powers can be confident that their peers have benign intentions is of enormous importance in both the real world and in ... More

This chapter begins by explaining that the question of whether or not great powers can be confident that their peers have benign intentions is of enormous importance in both the real world and in international relations theory. In a nutshell, confidence causes peace and uncertainty causes security competition with the potential for war. The chapter then addresses the intentions question in three ways. First, it briefly describes a theory—intentions pessimism—that says great powers can rarely if ever be confident that their peers have benign intentions, because it is extraordinarily difficult for them to obtain the requisite information. Second, it argues that intentions pessimism matches up well with the historical record, and specifically, that it offers a compelling explanation of how great powers have actually thought about each other’s intentions over the past 150 years. Third, it applies intentions pessimism to the future of great power politics, predicting that the United States and China will each be uncertain about the other’s intentions, which will, in turn, cause them to compete for security and perhaps go to war.Less

Beyond Military Deterrence: The Multidimensionality of International Relations in East Asia

Chin-Hao Huang and David C. Kang

in Cross-Domain Deterrence: Strategy in an Era of Complexity

States interact in a multiplicity of domains, and most of them are not military in nature. Situating the security domain alongside economic and social domains of interaction among countries is ... More

States interact in a multiplicity of domains, and most of them are not military in nature. Situating the security domain alongside economic and social domains of interaction among countries is important for creating a full analysis of a state’s priorities in a particular region, or with any particular other state. Failure to appreciate the nonmilitary dimensions of international relations in Asia in particular can lead one to misdiagnose the prospects of conflict and cooperation, potentially leading to tragic spirals. Data on East Asian defense spending over twenty-five years appears to present a puzzle: by many measures, East Asian military expenditures have declined significantly over the past quarter century. This finding appears starkly at odds with the conventional wisdom that Chinese bellicosity, its expenditure on anti-access/area-denial capabilities, and the United States’ reallocation of forces are increasing tensions in the region. Any policy of cross-domain deterrence that fails to appreciate interactions across the full multiplicity of domains of international intercourse risks courting deterrence failure.Less