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The purpose of an S-curve analysis is to understand and interpret the evolution of a market, product, or technology so as to make informed strategic decisions about where value may be created now and in the future. S-curves map out this evolution, from its relatively slow emergence, to the point where it begins to grow and growth accelerates, to the point where the market becomes saturated and growth begins to slow and even decline. This chapter discusses the underlying theory, core idea, depiction, process, insight or value created, and risks and limitations of S-curve analysis. The chapter also discusses the illustration of Spotify and applies the steps of S-curve analysis to this case.

Disruption arises when great firms fail precisely because they continued to make choices that had originally made them great. It is important to distinguish this from other causes of failure (e.g., complacency or incompetence) and also from the over-use of the term “disruption.” To do this, the chapter is anchored in the case of Blockbuster video, which is one of the most often discussed poster children for disruption in recent memory. Here the author shows, contrary to many commentators, Blockbuster was always early in thinking about exploiting digital opportunities but the timing was never right given its traditional business model. To understand disruption, we identify its intellectual origins. The chapter discusses how each of these thinkers would have examined the Blockbuster case as a thought experiment, demonstrating that the case itself has a richer and more subtle narrative than ‘Netflix destroyed Blockbuster’. In particular, it is far from clear that this would not have happened even if Netflix did not exist.

The chapter begins with an introduction of terminology and definitions of borrower options (call on loan, put on property) and prepayment rate. In introducing uncertainty, the authors invoke a much discussed question from 2011: When will Derek Jeter produce his 3,000th hit? This analogy reveals the challenge of modeling borrower behavior, which is random in realization (the hit day is random even with known batting average and at-bat appearances) and carries modeling uncertainties (Will Jeter be hitting .330 or .270? Will he be healthy or injured?). The collective actions of many borrowers can be depicted by an S-curve explained by the Vasicek loan loss model, also introduced in the chapter. The chapter ends with a discussion of economic factors entering prepayments (interest rates, home prices), as well the effect of borrower heterogeneity that leads to prepayment burnout.

The chapter discusses the nature of the process of diffusion as a feedback-loop process and explains its contribution to the conventionalization of innovations, to linguistic variation, change, and persistence. The chapter is divided into sections portraying spatial diffusion, social diffusion, and stylistic diffusion as highly dynamic, potentially reversible, and therefore largely unpredictable. Aspects discussed include various models of spatial diffusion (e.g. the gravity model and the cascade model), the S-curve model of the social diffusion of innovations, as well as processes such as standardization, colloquialization, and vernacularization. It is highlighted that all three dimensions of diffusion must always be kept in sight. This is illustrated by discussing the variable -ing vs -in as a standard example of what Labov (2001) calls a ‘stable sociolinguistic variable’.

This chapter discusses some methodological aspects of the corpus work that constitutes the empirical foundation of this book. It starts by addressing the question why one would want to use corpus methods in the first place. Next, the Latin text corpus, which is reported on in the upcoming chapters, is presented on. To show that this corpus can indeed be considered a reliable source of information on how the Latin language evolved in the period from 200 BC to 600 AD, a case study is offered on the diachronic development of a particular type of periphrastic construction with esse ‘be’. Specifically, it is shown that the spread of future perfects of the type amatus fuero can be nicely fitted onto an S-curve, suggesting that the corpus reliably reflects the actual spoken language. The chapter concludes with some remarks on the distinction between synchronic and diachronic variation.

Chapter 3 is the second chapter dedicated to the technological imperative stage of the political communication cycle (PCC). It focuses on the technological component of political communication revolutions (PCRs) and addresses how the cost, rate of diffusion, and perceived benefits of each new information and communication technology (ICT) affects its political utility. In other words, chapter 3 evaluates how new ICTs become politically viable. A politically viable ICT does not enter American politics without active choices made on the part of political actors who try to use these new tools in innovative ways. All widely diffused ICTs do not share wide-scale political utility. As a result, some ICTs—like mass-marketed newspapers, radio, television, and the internet—have had a major impact on communication practices broadly and political communication innovations specifically, while others like the telephone and telegraph have transformed social communication but not political communication.

Chapter 4 explains the concept of political choice, the second and most important phase of the political communication cycle (PCC). The political choice phase is the process in which political actors choose if and when to incorporate new information and communications technologies (ICTs) into their communication strategies. This chapter details the process that political actors or organizations go through when determining whether to innovate and helps to identify characteristics of those parties that are more likely to innovate earlier than others, known as innovativeness. Political choice is the behavioral component of the political communication cycle. These innovation decisions are the primary determinants regarding if and how ICT innovations are used to change political communication activity. Therefore, political choice is the most important phase of the PCC, differentiating political communication change from social and societal communication change more broadly.