Alan H. Lockwood
- Published in print:
- 2016
- Published Online:
- May 2017
- ISBN:
- 9780262034876
- eISBN:
- 9780262335737
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- The MIT Press
- DOI:
- 10.7551/mitpress/9780262034876.003.0002
- Subject:
- Public Health and Epidemiology, Public Health
The instrumental record shows steadily rising global surface temperatures as the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases increased during the industrial age. Numerous ...
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The instrumental record shows steadily rising global surface temperatures as the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases increased during the industrial age. Numerous complementary scientific techniques have shown clearly that these increases are due to human activity, notably burning fossil fuels. The instrumental record is complemented by proxy measurements that reliably document the earth’s temperature and the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide for hundreds of thousands, and in some cases, millions of years. Present conditions are unprecedented in those time frames. Without drastic reductions in the emission of carbon dioxide the worst is yet to come.Less
The instrumental record shows steadily rising global surface temperatures as the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases increased during the industrial age. Numerous complementary scientific techniques have shown clearly that these increases are due to human activity, notably burning fossil fuels. The instrumental record is complemented by proxy measurements that reliably document the earth’s temperature and the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide for hundreds of thousands, and in some cases, millions of years. Present conditions are unprecedented in those time frames. Without drastic reductions in the emission of carbon dioxide the worst is yet to come.
Michela Massimi
- Published in print:
- 2022
- Published Online:
- June 2022
- ISBN:
- 9780197555620
- eISBN:
- 9780197555651
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/oso/9780197555620.003.0006
- Subject:
- Philosophy, Philosophy of Science
This chapter introduces a second case study for perspectival modelling: the multi-model ‘ensembles’ in the 2013 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Fifth Assessment Report, Working ...
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This chapter introduces a second case study for perspectival modelling: the multi-model ‘ensembles’ in the 2013 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Fifth Assessment Report, Working Group 1 (AR5-WG1). It underlines the multifactorial nature of the phenomenon ‘global warming’ and how it in itself is the result of perspectival data-to-phenomena inferences that require a plurality of epistemic communities to work together. Such inferences are perspectival in bringing together a plurality of scientific perspectives, from dendroclimatology to palaeoclimatology and geothermal physics, among others. This perspectival pluralism is key to the reliability of the inferences from datasets and the justification of the knowledge claims advanced about global warming. The IPCC AR5-WG1 climate modelling is another example of perspectival modelling in being exploratory and delivering knowledge of what is possible. The purpose of this complex modelling exercise is not just to reliably establish that global warming is occurring, but also how fast it has occurred since the pre-industrial era, and, most importantly, to project how fast it may occur in the future depending on a number of greenhouse gas (GHG) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Climate models illustrate what I call physical conceivability as a guide to possibility: they invite us to physically conceive of a number of GHG concentration scenarios so as to deliver knowledge of what might be the case about global warming in the year 2100, for example.Less
This chapter introduces a second case study for perspectival modelling: the multi-model ‘ensembles’ in the 2013 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Fifth Assessment Report, Working Group 1 (AR5-WG1). It underlines the multifactorial nature of the phenomenon ‘global warming’ and how it in itself is the result of perspectival data-to-phenomena inferences that require a plurality of epistemic communities to work together. Such inferences are perspectival in bringing together a plurality of scientific perspectives, from dendroclimatology to palaeoclimatology and geothermal physics, among others. This perspectival pluralism is key to the reliability of the inferences from datasets and the justification of the knowledge claims advanced about global warming. The IPCC AR5-WG1 climate modelling is another example of perspectival modelling in being exploratory and delivering knowledge of what is possible. The purpose of this complex modelling exercise is not just to reliably establish that global warming is occurring, but also how fast it has occurred since the pre-industrial era, and, most importantly, to project how fast it may occur in the future depending on a number of greenhouse gas (GHG) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Climate models illustrate what I call physical conceivability as a guide to possibility: they invite us to physically conceive of a number of GHG concentration scenarios so as to deliver knowledge of what might be the case about global warming in the year 2100, for example.
