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Understanding Inflation and the Implications for Monetary Policy: A Phillips Curve Retrospective

Jeff Fuhrer, Yolanda K. Kodrzycki, Jane Sneddon Little, and Giovanni P. Olivei (eds)

Published in print:
2009
Published Online:
August 2013
ISBN:
9780262013635
eISBN:
9780262258784
Item type:
book
Publisher:
The MIT Press
DOI:
10.7551/mitpress/9780262013635.001.0001
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Econometrics

In 1958, economist A. W. Phillips published an article describing what he observed to be the inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment; subsequently, the “Phillips curve” became a ... More


US Natural Rate Dynamics Reconsidered *

Gunnar Bårdsen and Ragnar Nymoen

in The Methodology and Practice of Econometrics: A Festschrift in Honour of David F. Hendry

Published in print:
2009
Published Online:
September 2009
ISBN:
9780199237197
eISBN:
9780191717314
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199237197.003.0016
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Econometrics

This chapter reconsiders several features of the U.S. natural rate of unemployment through specification and testing of econometric models. Traditionally, the choice has been between a wage Phillips ... More


Contemporary Macroeconomic Theory

Ernesto Screpanti and Stefano Zamagni

in An Outline of the History of Economic Thought

Published in print:
2005
Published Online:
October 2005
ISBN:
9780199279142
eISBN:
9780191602887
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0199279144.003.0010
Subject:
Economics and Finance, History of Economic Thought

The first of three chapters dedicated to the post-war period. Compares and contrasts the 'neoclassical synthesis' and the monetarist counter-revolution. Shows the rational expectation revolution as ... More


Animal Spirits, Persistent Unemployment, and the Belief Function

Roger E. A. Farmer

in Rethinking Expectations: The Way Forward for Macroeconomics

Published in print:
2013
Published Online:
October 2017
ISBN:
9780691155234
eISBN:
9781400846450
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Princeton University Press
DOI:
10.23943/princeton/9780691155234.003.0008
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Macro- and Monetary Economics

This chapter examines the persistence of unemployment by drawing from John Maynard Keynes' two central ideas. The first idea is that any unemployment rate can persist as an equilibrium. The second is ... More


Reappraisal of the Phillips Curve and Direct Effects of Money Supply on Inflation

Albert Ando, Flint Brayton, and Arthur Kennickell

in Comparative Performance of U.S. Econometric Models

Published in print:
1991
Published Online:
October 2011
ISBN:
9780195057720
eISBN:
9780199854967
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195057720.003.0007
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Econometrics

This chapter provides some evidence on two closely related issues. The first is the question of how well or how badly a typical non-monetarist econometric structure can account for the dynamic ... More


Monetarism

Lutz G. Arnold

in Business Cycle Theory

Published in print:
2002
Published Online:
October 2011
ISBN:
9780199256815
eISBN:
9780191698385
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199256815.003.0003
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Financial Economics

This chapter discusses that Monetarism emerged as a separate school of thought in business cycle theory from Friedman's work on monetary economics in the 1950s and 1960s. The major accomplishment of ... More


Policymaking and Histories of Policymaking

James Forder

in Macroeconomics and the Phillips Curve Myth

Published in print:
2014
Published Online:
November 2014
ISBN:
9780199683659
eISBN:
9780191763281
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199683659.003.0006
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Macro- and Monetary Economics

Policymaking in Britain and the United States is briefly considered, showing that there is no reason to suppose that the Phillips curve influenced it. It is further shown that, before the mid-1970s, ... More


Phillips Curve Inflation Forecasts

James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson

in Understanding Inflation and the Implications for Monetary Policy: A Phillips Curve Retrospective

Published in print:
2009
Published Online:
August 2013
ISBN:
9780262013635
eISBN:
9780262258784
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
The MIT Press
DOI:
10.7551/mitpress/9780262013635.003.0003
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Econometrics

This chapter is organized as follows. Section 2 begins with some forecasting terminology followed by preliminary details concerning the empirical analysis and the six prototype inflation forecasting ... More


The Role of National Central Banks and of Different Policy Cultures

Harald Uhlig

in The Impact of EMU on Europe and the Developing Countries

Published in print:
2001
Published Online:
October 2011
ISBN:
9780199245314
eISBN:
9780191697449
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199245314.003.0004
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Development, Growth, and Environmental

This chapter focuses on the role of central banks and differences in policy cultures. It analyses the trade-off between inflation and unemployment in a selection of industrialized countries. It ... More


The Role of Samuelson and Solow, American Economic Review 1960

James Forder

in Macroeconomics and the Phillips Curve Myth

Published in print:
2014
Published Online:
November 2014
ISBN:
9780199683659
eISBN:
9780191763281
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199683659.003.0002
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Macro- and Monetary Economics

The context and objectives of Samuelson and Solow’s contribution to the American Economic Review of May 1960 is considered. It is argued that they took a broad, eclectic, and reasonable view of the ... More


Attitudes to Inflation

James Forder

in Macroeconomics and the Phillips Curve Myth

Published in print:
2014
Published Online:
November 2014
ISBN:
9780199683659
eISBN:
9780191763281
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199683659.003.0005
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Macro- and Monetary Economics

The importance attached to price stability by the economists of the 1960s and 1970s is emphasized,. The contemporary idea of cost-push inflation is considered and it is argued to be a distinct and ... More


Explaining the Emergence of the Myth

James Forder

in Macroeconomics and the Phillips Curve Myth

Published in print:
2014
Published Online:
November 2014
ISBN:
9780199683659
eISBN:
9780191763281
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199683659.003.0007
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Macro- and Monetary Economics

It is noted that the most famous papers of the Phillips curve literature are not typical of it, and that in the 1960s and 1970s the meaning of ‘Phillips curve’ became very confused. It is ... More


Conclusions

James Forder

in Macroeconomics and the Phillips Curve Myth

Published in print:
2014
Published Online:
November 2014
ISBN:
9780199683659
eISBN:
9780191763281
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199683659.003.0008
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Macro- and Monetary Economics

The story of the Phillips curve is retold, and it is noted that it takes an entirely different form from the conventional one and that in this area there has been a complete failure by economists to ... More


Inflation Expectations, Uncertainty, the Phillips Curve, and Monetary Policy

Christopher A. Sims

in Understanding Inflation and the Implications for Monetary Policy: A Phillips Curve Retrospective

Published in print:
2009
Published Online:
August 2013
ISBN:
9780262013635
eISBN:
9780262258784
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
The MIT Press
DOI:
10.7551/mitpress/9780262013635.003.0009
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Econometrics

This chapter traces how the treatment of inflation expectations in the Phillips curve framework has evolved over time. The discussion includes the New Keynesian Phillips curve, ... More


Case Study One—Modelling the Phillips Curve

Qin Duo

in A History of Econometrics: The Reformation from the 1970s

Published in print:
2013
Published Online:
September 2013
ISBN:
9780199679348
eISBN:
9780191758416
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199679348.003.0006
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Econometrics, History of Economic Thought

This chapter examines the history of econometrics through a case study of the Phillips curve, ie econometric modelling of the trade-off between inflation and unemployment. It focuses on a number of ... More


Macroeconomics and the Phillips Curve Myth

James Forder

Published in print:
2014
Published Online:
November 2014
ISBN:
9780199683659
eISBN:
9780191763281
Item type:
book
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199683659.001.0001
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Macro- and Monetary Economics

The story of the history of the Phillips curve up to the 1980s is reconsidered. It is argued that none of the principal components of conventional stories is correct. Phillips did not discover the ... More


The Curve of Phillips

James Forder

in Macroeconomics and the Phillips Curve Myth

Published in print:
2014
Published Online:
November 2014
ISBN:
9780199683659
eISBN:
9780191763281
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199683659.003.0001
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Macro- and Monetary Economics

Close attention is given to the prevailing theory at the time Phillips wrote, to what he wrote, and what he and others said about it. The theory of the time placed emphasis on fairness in wage ... More


The Phillips Curve Literature before Friedman’s Presidential Address

James Forder

in Macroeconomics and the Phillips Curve Myth

Published in print:
2014
Published Online:
November 2014
ISBN:
9780199683659
eISBN:
9780191763281
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199683659.003.0003
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Macro- and Monetary Economics

The economic presumptions behind the econometric analysis conducted in the 1960s of what came to be called ‘the Phillips curve’ is analysed in detail. It is shown that the origins of the literature ... More


The Post-1968 Literature

James Forder

in Macroeconomics and the Phillips Curve Myth

Published in print:
2014
Published Online:
November 2014
ISBN:
9780199683659
eISBN:
9780191763281
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199683659.003.0004
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Macro- and Monetary Economics

This chapter demonstrates that the ‘expectations argument’, commonly attributed to Milton Friedman and Edmund Phelps, and dated to the middle or late 1960s was commonplace much earlier. So, ... More


Globalization and Inflation Dynamics: The Impact of Increased Competition

Argia M. Sbordone

in International Dimensions of Monetary Policy

Published in print:
2010
Published Online:
February 2013
ISBN:
9780226278865
eISBN:
9780226278872
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
University of Chicago Press
DOI:
10.7208/chicago/9780226278872.003.0011
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Macro- and Monetary Economics

This chapter systematically addresses how globalization may have influenced the short-run Phillips curve trade-off between inflation and output. A Phillips curve relation is developed that originates ... More


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