David P. Rapkin and William R. Thompson
- Published in print:
- 2013
- Published Online:
- January 2014
- ISBN:
- 9780226040332
- eISBN:
- 9780226040509
- Item type:
- book
- Publisher:
- University of Chicago Press
- DOI:
- 10.7208/chicago/9780226040509.001.0001
- Subject:
- Political Science, International Relations and Politics
There is considerable speculation that the twenty-first century will witness a systemic leadership transition in which the United States, the incumbent system leader, is passed by China. The ...
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There is considerable speculation that the twenty-first century will witness a systemic leadership transition in which the United States, the incumbent system leader, is passed by China. The probability and timing of such a momentous event remains unclear. So, too, are the causal processes which might bring it about. Despite the occurrence of previous systemic transitions, commentators tend to treat the possible ascendance of China to predominance as a novelty. A different approach relies heavily on international relations theory and applies a forward reasoning approach to constructing a range of possible future transition scenarios. As the future unfolds, we watch for reality-scenario correspondence which also helps to identify the mix of conflict inducing and constraining drivers at workLess
There is considerable speculation that the twenty-first century will witness a systemic leadership transition in which the United States, the incumbent system leader, is passed by China. The probability and timing of such a momentous event remains unclear. So, too, are the causal processes which might bring it about. Despite the occurrence of previous systemic transitions, commentators tend to treat the possible ascendance of China to predominance as a novelty. A different approach relies heavily on international relations theory and applies a forward reasoning approach to constructing a range of possible future transition scenarios. As the future unfolds, we watch for reality-scenario correspondence which also helps to identify the mix of conflict inducing and constraining drivers at work
