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On the basis of the theoretical and empirical analyses of the preceding chapters, Chapter 6 analyzes the fundamental institutions of East Asian order. It argues that early-Ming Chinese hegemony in the region was at the same time a distinct international society with its own rules, norms, and institutions. The chapter develops a relational framework of the constitutional structure of the society of Chinese hegemony. The framework explains the institutional manifestations of tributary diplomacy while also observing other fundamental institutional practices. Although tributary diplomacy was an extremely consequential institution, it was not always the most important one. The East Asian society of Chinese hegemony was broader and more dynamic than the tribute system. Conceptualizing the tribute system as an international society is useful for highlighting the distinctiveness of international relations in East Asian history. But it is inadequate for understanding the full dynamics of regional relations.

The concluding chapter begins by offering a succinct summary of the book’s overall arguments and elaborates how they contribute to the fields of international relations, Asian Studies, and social science more broadly. It then discusses the relevance of the book’s arguments for ongoing policy debates regarding the future of American hegemony with the rise of China. From a meta-theoretical point of view, I end the book with a caveat that one cannot predict the future with certainty.

This chapter offers a comprehensive review of the tribute system, which shows that the existing literature has largely ignored the role played by less powerful East Asian states. It is in this chapter that I suggest a new, more nuanced interpretation of the tribute system through the lens of “practices” rather than the “system.” The chapter then discusses in some details the concept of authority in the specific early modern East Asian context, while drawing on the writings of Chinese and Korean tributary envoys. The chapter also addresses questions of research design and explains the selection of case studies.

This chapter presents an overview of the main arguments and structure of the book. Beginning with the question of how one might think about a possible future Chinese hegemony in East Asia, it proposes to examine China’s past hegemony in the region. It summarizes four main arguments of the book: hierarchy in regional politics, Confucian expressive rationality in regional strategic interactions, the nature of the tribute system, and the strategic responses of China’s neighbors to Chinese hegemony. The chapter also outlines the book’s case selection criteria and methodology.

Drawing on distinguished relational traditions in both China and the West, this chapter develops a relational theory to explain a distinct set of grand strategies that imperial China and its neighbors may adopt in their interactions. The theory provides a new framework for understanding the strategic dynamics of regional politics under the condition of Chinese hegemony. It also affords a new perspective on the role of Confucianism in Chinese foreign policy: constraining in the grand strategy of instrumental hierarchy but causal and constitutive in the grand strategy of expressive hierarchy. Equally important, it uncovers an expressive dimension of regional politics that is almost universally ignored in the existing literature. The theory also posits a major facilitating condition of rationality and strategy: They are both relational outcomes conditioned by the degree of the conflict of interest in particular relationships.

This chapter and the next seven offer scenarios. The first scenario is marked by low energy prices, strong growth, and global harmony. The OECD suffers a decade of low growth in the 2010s while Asian growth continues to surge. Rapid expansion of oil and gas production coupled with slow OECD growth results in subdued energy prices. The OECD economy eventually rights itself with a burst of technological innovation, some of which significantly reduces energy consumption. By 2030 China has become by far the largest economy, with high per capita income, advanced technology, a powerful military, and the political will to be the new hegemon. However, China does not assert itself aggressively beyond its Asian region, and does not try to fundamentally alter the rules of the global economy. The United Nations takes on a growing role in global affairs.

This third scenario is marked by high energy prices, strong growth, and global harmony. In this scenario the world economy recovers from the stagnation in 2008-2012, pushing up energy prices sharply. Countries are assumed to follow policies that increase property rights, improve the rule of law, and increase trade openness. China continues to have very high growth, but finds that accommodating to the existing global regime makes more sense for it economically and politically than challenging the existing order. The United States and the European Union remain strong and prosperous and find a way to get along peacefully with a rising China. Buoyed by peace and prosperity among the big three economies of the United States, European Union, and China, many countries across several regions continue on a gradual path toward convergence with the OECD. The BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China) are joined by second echelon of states – the STICKs – comprised of South Africa, Turkey, Indonesia, Colombia, and Kazakhstan. Energy prices remain high due to growing demand from strengthening economies. Competition for water sources from a growing agricultural sector also keep energy prices high.