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Democracy as a Bayesian Persuader

Robert E. Goodin

in Reflective Democracy

Published in print:
2003
Published Online:
November 2003
ISBN:
9780199256174
eISBN:
9780191599354
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0199256179.003.0006
Subject:
Political Science, Political Theory

Shows how Bayesian thinking should make democratic outcomes so rationally compelling. Bayes's formula provides a mathematical expression for specifying exactly how we ought rationally to update our a ... More


Updating, Supposing, and MAXENT

Brian Skyrms

in From Zeno to Arbitrage: Essays on Quantity, Coherence, and Induction

Published in print:
2012
Published Online:
January 2013
ISBN:
9780199652808
eISBN:
9780191745829
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199652808.003.0010
Subject:
Philosophy, Philosophy of Science, Metaphysics/Epistemology

Is minimizing the Kullback-Leibler divergence subject to a constraint a rule of inductive inference, as some have proposed. This chapter suggests that it is better seen as a method for counterfactual ... More


Everett and Evidence

Hilary Greaves and Wayne Myrvold

in Many Worlds?: Everett, Quantum Theory, and Reality

Published in print:
2010
Published Online:
September 2010
ISBN:
9780199560561
eISBN:
9780191721380
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199560561.003.0011
Subject:
Philosophy, Metaphysics/Epistemology, Philosophy of Science

Much of the evidence for quantum mechanics is statistical in nature. Relative frequency data summarizing the results of repeated experiments is compared to probabilities calculated from the theory; ... More


Bayesian Model Averaging, Learning, and Model Selection *

George W. Evans, Seppo Honkapohja, Thomas J. Sargent, and Noah Williams

in Macroeconomics at the Service of Public Policy

Published in print:
2013
Published Online:
May 2013
ISBN:
9780199666126
eISBN:
9780191749278
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199666126.003.0007
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Macro- and Monetary Economics

Agents have two forecasting models, one consistent with the unique rational expectations equilibrium, another that assumes a time‐varying parameter structure. When agents use Bayesian updating to ... More


A Brutal Logic

John W. Schiemann

in Does Torture Work?

Published in print:
2015
Published Online:
November 2015
ISBN:
9780190262365
eISBN:
9780190262396
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780190262365.003.0006
Subject:
Political Science, American Politics, Political Theory

If interrogational torture is to work the way its proponents claim, then it must follow a brutal cost – benefit, pain – information logic. This chapter works through this brutal logic, solving for ... More


Individual Subjective Survival Curves

Li Gan, Michael D. Hurd, and Daniel McFadden (eds)

in Analyses in the Economics of Aging

Published in print:
2005
Published Online:
February 2013
ISBN:
9780226902869
eISBN:
9780226903217
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
University of Chicago Press
DOI:
10.7208/chicago/9780226903217.003.0013
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Econometrics

This chapter examines individual subjective survival probabilities using data from the Asset and Health Dynamics among the Oldest Old (AHEAD) and the Health and Retirement Survey (HRS). It proposes a ... More


Publish Late, Publish Rarely!: Network Density and Group Performance in Scientific Communication

Staffan Angere and Erik J. Olsson

in Scientific Collaboration and Collective Knowledge: New Essays

Published in print:
2017
Published Online:
December 2017
ISBN:
9780190680534
eISBN:
9780190680565
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/oso/9780190680534.003.0002
Subject:
Philosophy, Philosophy of Science, Metaphysics/Epistemology

It is almost a tautology that scientists should try to be as “connected” as they can. Yet studies have found abundant communication links in a network of inquirers to be detrimental to group ... More


Multiple hypothesis testing over live data

Peter Grindrod CBE

in Mathematical Underpinnings of Analytics: Theory and Applications

Published in print:
2014
Published Online:
March 2015
ISBN:
9780198725091
eISBN:
9780191792526
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198725091.003.0006
Subject:
Mathematics, Analysis, Probability / Statistics

A Bayesian framework for making real over live data time decisions is introduced. Examples are given to identify certain types of sources, and recognize returning customers. The use of logistic ... More


The Basic Tools of Risk Modeling

Gilles Bénéplanc and Jean-Charles Rochet

in Risk Management in Turbulent Times

Published in print:
2011
Published Online:
April 2015
ISBN:
9780199774081
eISBN:
9780190258474
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:osobl/9780199774081.003.0005
Subject:
Business and Management, Finance, Accounting, and Banking

This chapter discusses two methods for quantifying risks: the frequentist approach and the subjective approach. The frequentist approach can be applied in stationary environments when enough past ... More


Using Priors in Experimental Design: How Much Are We Leaving on the Table?

Eva Vivalt

in Randomized Control Trials in the Field of Development: A Critical Perspective

Published in print:
2020
Published Online:
October 2020
ISBN:
9780198865360
eISBN:
9780191898266
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/oso/9780198865360.003.0013
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Financial Economics, Development, Growth, and Environmental

I argue that a big issue facing all academic studies is whether and how to leverage decision-makers’ priors in study design. Both RCTs and non-RCTs could more efficiently inform policy-making if ... More


Comparative lessons

Eileen Keller

in Financial Crises and the Limits of Bank Reform: France and Germany's Ways Into and Out of the Great Recession

Published in print:
2021
Published Online:
June 2021
ISBN:
9780198870746
eISBN:
9780191913358
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/oso/9780198870746.003.0008
Subject:
Political Science, Political Economy

This chapter takes stock of the previous chapters and discusses the findings. It summarizes the book’s main argument and examines the nature of social learning with respect to true learning, the ... More


Adaptive forecasting

Peter Grindrod CBE

in Mathematical Underpinnings of Analytics: Theory and Applications

Published in print:
2014
Published Online:
March 2015
ISBN:
9780198725091
eISBN:
9780191792526
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198725091.003.0007
Subject:
Mathematics, Analysis, Probability / Statistics

This chapter considers the problem of conditioning models and making forecasts as more and more information arrives, moving away from a subjective prior estimate for a model. It presents applications ... More


The Epistemology of Prejudice Maintenance

Endre Begby

in Prejudice: A Study in Non-Ideal Epistemology

Published in print:
2021
Published Online:
March 2021
ISBN:
9780198852834
eISBN:
9780191887130
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/oso/9780198852834.003.0006
Subject:
Philosophy, Metaphysics/Epistemology

But what about prejudice maintenance? Questions of acquisition aside, how could anyone be epistemically rational in retaining their prejudiced belief over time in the face of the significant amounts ... More


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