## Bayesian Statistical Inference

*Željko Ivezi, Andrew J. Connolly, Jacob T. VanderPlas, Alexander Gray, Željko Ivezi, Andrew J. Connolly, Jacob T. VanderPlas, and Alexander Gray*

### in Statistics, Data Mining, and Machine Learning in Astronomy: A Practical Python Guide for the Analysis of Survey Data

- Published in print:
- 2014
- Published Online:
- October 2017
- ISBN:
- 9780691151687
- eISBN:
- 9781400848911
- Item type:
- chapter

- Publisher:
- Princeton University Press
- DOI:
- 10.23943/princeton/9780691151687.003.0005
- Subject:
- Physics, Particle Physics / Astrophysics / Cosmology

This chapter introduces the most important aspects of Bayesian statistical inference and techniques for performing such calculations in practice. It first reviews the basic steps in Bayesian ... More

## Developing predictive models

*E. J. Milner-Gulland and Marcus Rowcliffe*

### in Conservation and Sustainable Use: A Handbook of Techniques

- Published in print:
- 2007
- Published Online:
- January 2008
- ISBN:
- 9780198530367
- eISBN:
- 9780191713095
- Item type:
- chapter

- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198530367.003.0005
- Subject:
- Biology, Biodiversity / Conservation Biology

The effective management of natural resources use requires a mechanistic understanding of the system, not just correlations between variables of the kind discussed in Chapter 4. Understanding may ... More

## Thinking about Evidence1

*DAVID LAGNADO*

### in Evidence, Inference and Enquiry

- Published in print:
- 2011
- Published Online:
- January 2013
- ISBN:
- 9780197264843
- eISBN:
- 9780191754050
- Item type:
- chapter

- Publisher:
- British Academy
- DOI:
- 10.5871/bacad/9780197264843.003.0007
- Subject:
- Sociology, Methodology and Statistics

This chapter argues that people reason about legal evidence using small-scale qualitative networks. These cognitive networks are typically qualitative and incomplete, and based on people's causal ... More

## Hierarchical Bayesian Models

*N. Thompson Hobbs and Mevin B. Hooten*

### in Bayesian Models: A Statistical Primer for Ecologists

- Published in print:
- 2015
- Published Online:
- October 2017
- ISBN:
- 9780691159287
- eISBN:
- 9781400866557
- Item type:
- chapter

- Publisher:
- Princeton University Press
- DOI:
- 10.23943/princeton/9780691159287.003.0006
- Subject:
- Biology, Ecology

This chapter seeks to explain hierarchical models and how they differ from simple Bayesian models and to illustrate building hierarchical models using mathematically correct expressions. It begins ... More

## Simple Bayesian Models

*N. Thompson Hobbs and Mevin B. Hooten*

### in Bayesian Models: A Statistical Primer for Ecologists

- Published in print:
- 2015
- Published Online:
- October 2017
- ISBN:
- 9780691159287
- eISBN:
- 9781400866557
- Item type:
- chapter

- Publisher:
- Princeton University Press
- DOI:
- 10.23943/princeton/9780691159287.003.0005
- Subject:
- Biology, Ecology

This chapter lays out the basic principles of Bayesian inference, building on the concepts of probability developed in Chapter 3. It seeks to use the rules of probability to show how Bayes' theorem ... More

## Bayesian Models: A Statistical Primer for Ecologists

*N. Thompson Hobbs and Mevin B. Hooten*

- Published in print:
- 2015
- Published Online:
- October 2017
- ISBN:
- 9780691159287
- eISBN:
- 9781400866557
- Item type:
- book

- Publisher:
- Princeton University Press
- DOI:
- 10.23943/princeton/9780691159287.001.0001
- Subject:
- Biology, Ecology

Bayesian modeling has become an indispensable tool for ecological research because it is uniquely suited to deal with complexity in a statistically coherent way. This book provides a comprehensive ... More

## Writing Bayesian Models

*N. Thompson Hobbs and Mevin B. Hooten*

### in Bayesian Models: A Statistical Primer for Ecologists

- Published in print:
- 2015
- Published Online:
- October 2017
- ISBN:
- 9780691159287
- eISBN:
- 9781400866557
- Item type:
- chapter

- Publisher:
- Princeton University Press
- DOI:
- 10.23943/princeton/9780691159287.003.0010
- Subject:
- Biology, Ecology

This chapter offers a general set of steps for writing models to assist the researcher in formulating their own approach to the Bayesian model. The crucial skill of specifying models is often ... More

## Humans' Multisensory Perception, from Integration to Segregation, Follows Bayesian Inference

*Ladan Shams and Ulrik Beierholm*

### in Sensory Cue Integration

- Published in print:
- 2011
- Published Online:
- September 2012
- ISBN:
- 9780195387247
- eISBN:
- 9780199918379
- Item type:
- chapter

- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195387247.003.0013
- Subject:
- Psychology, Cognitive Neuroscience, Cognitive Psychology

This chapter first discusses experimental findings showing that multisensory perception encompasses a spectrum of phenomena ranging from full integration (or fusion), to partial integration, to ... More

## Spatial variation in risk

*Dirk U. Pfeiffer, Timothy P. Robinson, Mark Stevenson, Kim B. Stevens, David J. Rogers, and Archie C. A. Clements*

### in Spatial Analysis in Epidemiology

- Published in print:
- 2008
- Published Online:
- September 2008
- ISBN:
- 9780198509882
- eISBN:
- 9780191709128
- Item type:
- chapter

- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198509882.003.0006
- Subject:
- Biology, Disease Ecology / Epidemiology

This chapter discusses spatial variation in risk. Epidemiological disease investigations should include an assessment of the spatial variation of disease risk, as this may provide important clues ... More

## Characterizing Uncertainty of Future Climate Change Projections using Hierarchical Bayesian Models *

*Claudia Tebaldi, Bruno Sansó, and Richard L. Smith*

### in Bayesian Statistics 9

- Published in print:
- 2011
- Published Online:
- January 2012
- ISBN:
- 9780199694587
- eISBN:
- 9780191731921
- Item type:
- chapter

- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199694587.003.0021
- Subject:
- Mathematics, Probability / Statistics

The use of projections from ensembles of climate models to characterize fu ture climate change at regional scales has become the most widely adopted framework, as opposed to what was standard ... More

## Preview

*N. Thompson Hobbs and Mevin B. Hooten*

### in Bayesian Models: A Statistical Primer for Ecologists

- Published in print:
- 2015
- Published Online:
- October 2017
- ISBN:
- 9780691159287
- eISBN:
- 9781400866557
- Item type:
- chapter

- Publisher:
- Princeton University Press
- DOI:
- 10.23943/princeton/9780691159287.003.0001
- Subject:
- Biology, Ecology

This chapter sketches an approach to inference applicable to an enormous range of research problems—one that can be understood from first principles and that can be unambiguously communicated to ... More

## Optimal Random Exploration for Trade‐related Nonindigenous Species Risk

*Michael Springborn, Christopher Costello, and Peyton Ferrier*

### in Bioinvasions and Globalization: Ecology, Economics, Management, and Policy

- Published in print:
- 2009
- Published Online:
- May 2010
- ISBN:
- 9780199560158
- eISBN:
- 9780191721557
- Item type:
- chapter

- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199560158.003.0010
- Subject:
- Biology, Ecology, Biodiversity / Conservation Biology

This chapter identifies variables from the port inspection setting that influence the gains to exploration via random inspections. It begins by describing a Bayesian learning model of trade-related ... More

## Surviving fully Bayesian nonparametric regression models

*Timothy E. Hanson and Alejandro Jara*

### in Bayesian Theory and Applications

- Published in print:
- 2013
- Published Online:
- May 2013
- ISBN:
- 9780199695607
- eISBN:
- 9780191744167
- Item type:
- chapter

- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199695607.003.0030
- Subject:
- Mathematics, Probability / Statistics

This chapter compares two Bayesian nonparametric models that generalize the accelerated failure time model, based on recent work on probability models for predictor-dependent probability ... More

## Investigating the genetic association between diabetes and malaria: an application of Bayesian ecological regression models with errors in covariates

*L. Bernardinelli, C. Pascutto, C. Montomoli, and W. Gilks*

### in Spatial Epidemiology: Methods and Applications

- Published in print:
- 2001
- Published Online:
- September 2009
- ISBN:
- 9780198515326
- eISBN:
- 9780191723667
- Item type:
- chapter

- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198515326.003.0016
- Subject:
- Public Health and Epidemiology, Public Health, Epidemiology

This chapter describes a Bayesian hierarchical model and applies it to a new dataset on insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (IDDM) prevalence among 18-year-old males born in Sardinia between 1936 and ... More

## Bayesian methods for mapping disease risk

*D. Clayton and L. Bernardinelli*

### in Geographical and Environmental Epidemiology: Methods for Small Area Studies

- Published in print:
- 1996
- Published Online:
- September 2009
- ISBN:
- 9780192622358
- eISBN:
- 9780191723636
- Item type:
- chapter

- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780192622358.003.0018
- Subject:
- Public Health and Epidemiology, Public Health, Epidemiology

The construction of disease maps has been a central problem of descriptive epidemiology throughout its history. There are two main classes of disease maps: maps of standardized rates, and maps of ... More

## Bayesianism

*Brian D. Haig*

### in The Philosophy of Quantitative Methods: Understanding Statistics

- Published in print:
- 2018
- Published Online:
- January 2018
- ISBN:
- 9780190222055
- eISBN:
- 9780190871734
- Item type:
- chapter

- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/oso/9780190222055.003.0004
- Subject:
- Psychology, Social Psychology

Chapter 4 focuses on Bayesian confirmation theory, a formal theory of reasoning based on probability theory. It deals with important, and related, general ideas, such as rationality, confirmation, ... More

## Simplicity and Model Selection

*Jan Sprenger and Stephan Hartmann*

### in Bayesian Philosophy of Science

- Published in print:
- 2019
- Published Online:
- October 2019
- ISBN:
- 9780199672110
- eISBN:
- 9780191881671
- Item type:
- chapter

- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/oso/9780199672110.003.0010
- Subject:
- Philosophy, Philosophy of Science

Is simplicity a virtue of a good scientific theory, and are simpler theories more likely to be true or predictively successful? If so, how much should simplicity count vis-à-vis predictive accuracy? ... More

## Domestic Coalition Shifts in War Termination

### in Paths to Peace: Domestic Coalition Shifts, War Termination and the Korean War

- Published in print:
- 2009
- Published Online:
- June 2013
- ISBN:
- 9780804762694
- eISBN:
- 9780804772372
- Item type:
- chapter

- Publisher:
- Stanford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.11126/stanford/9780804762694.003.0002
- Subject:
- Political Science, Conflict Politics and Policy

This chapter outlines the existing literature about war termination. It demonstrates that there is a causal connection between the difficulty of ending wars and the fact that they are started and ... More

## Analysis of Short-term Selection Experiments: 2. Mixed-model and Bayesian Approaches

*Bruce Walsh and Michael Lynch*

### in Evolution and Selection of Quantitative Traits

- Published in print:
- 2018
- Published Online:
- September 2018
- ISBN:
- 9780198830870
- eISBN:
- 9780191868986
- Item type:
- chapter

- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/oso/9780198830870.003.0019
- Subject:
- Biology, Evolutionary Biology / Genetics, Biochemistry / Molecular Biology

When the full pedigree of individuals whose values (records) were used in the selection decisions during an experiment (or breeding program) is known, LS analysis can be replaced by mixed models and ... More

## Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling of Public Health Surveillance Data: A Case Study of Air Pollution and Mortality

*Scott L. Zeger, Francesca Dominici, Aidan Mcdermott, and Jonathan M. Samet*

### in Monitoring the Health of Populations: Statistical Principles and Methods for Public Health Surveillance

- Published in print:
- 2003
- Published Online:
- September 2009
- ISBN:
- 9780195146493
- eISBN:
- 9780199864928
- Item type:
- chapter

- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195146493.003.0010
- Subject:
- Public Health and Epidemiology, Public Health, Epidemiology

This chapter illustrates the use of log-linear regression and hierarchical models to estimate the association of daily mortality with acute exposure to particulate air pollution. It focuses on ... More