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The Justification of Explanation

Richard Swinburne

in The Existence of God

Published in print:
2004
Published Online:
September 2007
ISBN:
9780199271672
eISBN:
9780191709357
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199271672.003.0004
Subject:
Philosophy, Philosophy of Religion

An explanatory hypothesis (whether of the personal or scientific kind) is probable in so far as it makes probable the occurrence of many observed phenomena, the occurrence of which is not probable ... More


The Criteria of Logical Probability

Richard Swinburne

in Epistemic Justification

Published in print:
2001
Published Online:
November 2003
ISBN:
9780199243792
eISBN:
9780191598524
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0199243794.003.0005
Subject:
Philosophy, Metaphysics/Epistemology

The logical probability of a proposition on another proposition is the true measure of how probable the latter makes the former. The central case of this concerns how likely some evidence makes some ... More


The Logic of Scientific Discovery

Colin Howson

in Hume's Problem: Induction and the Justification of Belief

Published in print:
2000
Published Online:
November 2003
ISBN:
9780198250371
eISBN:
9780191597749
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0198250371.003.0009
Subject:
Philosophy, Philosophy of Science

Applies the results of Ch. 7 to scientific methodology and shows that they give a logical interpretation of the subjective Bayesian theory of inductive inference. This theory is therefore no more ... More


Evidence and Probability Data

Steven J. Osterlind

in The Error of Truth: How History and Mathematics Came Together to Form Our Character and Shape Our Worldview

Published in print:
2019
Published Online:
January 2019
ISBN:
9780198831600
eISBN:
9780191869532
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/oso/9780198831600.003.0006
Subject:
Mathematics, Logic / Computer Science / Mathematical Philosophy

This chapter discusses evidence and probability data with particular attention on Bayesian estimation. The Protestant ethic slowed probability developments in the United States, but the idea of ... More


The Balance of Probability

Richard Swinburne

in The Resurrection of God Incarnate

Published in print:
2003
Published Online:
November 2003
ISBN:
9780199257461
eISBN:
9780191598616
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0199257469.003.0014
Subject:
Philosophy, Philosophy of Religion

Summarizes the argument of the book. Given only a moderate amount of evidence from natural theology in favour of the existence of God and his having reason to become incarnate among humans, there is ... More


Bayesianism

Brian D. Haig

in The Philosophy of Quantitative Methods: Understanding Statistics

Published in print:
2018
Published Online:
January 2018
ISBN:
9780190222055
eISBN:
9780190871734
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/oso/9780190222055.003.0004
Subject:
Psychology, Social Psychology

Chapter 4 focuses on Bayesian confirmation theory, a formal theory of reasoning based on probability theory. It deals with important, and related, general ideas, such as rationality, confirmation, ... More


Symmetries of Probability Kinematics

Bas C. van Fraassen

in Laws and Symmetry

Published in print:
1989
Published Online:
November 2003
ISBN:
9780198248606
eISBN:
9780191597459
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0198248601.003.0013
Subject:
Philosophy, Philosophy of Science

While it was argued earlier in the book that no rule‐governed notion of rational opinion change could be adequate, there are certainly patterns of normal opinion change (updating in response to new ... More


Chance and Probability

Colin Howson

in Hume's Problem: Induction and the Justification of Belief

Published in print:
2000
Published Online:
November 2003
ISBN:
9780198250371
eISBN:
9780191597749
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0198250371.003.0010
Subject:
Philosophy, Philosophy of Science

Considers the nature of chance and its role in statistical hypotheses. It is argued that the best way to understand chance is as tendency, naturally measured by the frequency in repeated trials of ... More


The Justification of Explanation

Richard Swinburne

in The Existence of God

Published in print:
1991
Published Online:
November 2003
ISBN:
9780198239635
eISBN:
9780191598609
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0198239637.003.0004
Subject:
Philosophy, Philosophy of Religion

An explanatory hypothesis (whether of the personal or scientific kind) is probable insofar as it makes probable the occurrence of many observed phenomena, the occurrence of which is not probable ... More


Coda: ‘Of Miracles’

Colin Howson

in Hume's Problem: Induction and the Justification of Belief

Published in print:
2000
Published Online:
November 2003
ISBN:
9780198250371
eISBN:
9780191597749
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0198250371.003.0012
Subject:
Philosophy, Philosophy of Science

The coda discusses Hume's famous account of miracles in the Enquiry, and his criterion for belief in miracles, and shows that it amounts to a simple argument in the probability calculus.


Achinstein and Whewell on Theoretical Coherence

Gregory J Morgan

in Philosophy of Science Matters: The Philosophy of Peter Achinstein

Published in print:
2011
Published Online:
May 2011
ISBN:
9780199738625
eISBN:
9780199894642
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199738625.003.0012
Subject:
Philosophy, Philosophy of Science

In his Particles and Waves, Peter Achinstein gives a precise probabilistic version of theoretical coherence inspired by William Whewell's somewhat vague notion of coherence. Whewell believed that as ... More


The Weight of Evidence

Andrew C. A. Elliott

in What are the Chances of That?: How to Think About Uncertainty

Published in print:
2021
Published Online:
September 2021
ISBN:
9780198869023
eISBN:
9780191905490
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/oso/9780198869023.003.0014
Subject:
Mathematics, Applied Mathematics, Probability / Statistics

Courts of law must weigh evidence to determine the likelihood of competing interpretations of past events, and different legal contexts require different standards of proof, but this falls short of a ... More


The Complex Story of Simplicity: Ontological and Epistemic Speculations

Peter Achinstein

in Speculation: Within and About Science

Published in print:
2018
Published Online:
December 2018
ISBN:
9780190615055
eISBN:
9780190615086
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/oso/9780190615055.003.0002
Subject:
Philosophy, Philosophy of Science, General

Both Newton and Einstein claim that nature is simple and that simplicity is an epistemic guide to truth. This chapter examines various arguments for these claims, including that, historically, ... More


Arguments from Providence and from Miracles: Of Miracles: The State of the Art and the Uses of History

Timothy McGrew

in Two Dozen (or so) Arguments for God: The Plantinga Project

Published in print:
2018
Published Online:
September 2018
ISBN:
9780190842215
eISBN:
9780190874445
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/oso/9780190842215.003.0021
Subject:
Religion, Theology

The mid-20th century consensus regarding Hume’s critique of reported miracles has broken down dramatically in recent years thanks to the application of probabilistic analysis to the issue and the ... More


Skeptical Theism: New Essays

Trent Dougherty and Justin P. McBrayer (eds)

Published in print:
2014
Published Online:
August 2014
ISBN:
9780199661183
eISBN:
9780191785566
Item type:
book
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199661183.001.0001
Subject:
Religion, Religious Studies, Philosophy of Religion

Given that we meet evils in every quarter of the world, could it be governed by an all-good and all-powerful deity? Some philosophers say no and claim that the problem of evil is good evidence for ... More


Entropy Maximization

Amos Golan

in Foundations of Info-Metrics: Modeling, Inference, and Imperfect Information

Published in print:
2017
Published Online:
November 2017
ISBN:
9780199349524
eISBN:
9780199349555
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/oso/9780199349524.003.0004
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Econometrics

In this chapter I develop the essential maximum entropy procedure, which is an inversion procedure for inferring an unknown probability distribution function from incomplete information. The ... More


The Spirit of Cromwell’s Rule

Timothy McGrew

in Best Explanations: New Essays on Inference to the Best Explanation

Published in print:
2017
Published Online:
January 2018
ISBN:
9780198746904
eISBN:
9780191809125
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/oso/9780198746904.003.0015
Subject:
Philosophy, Philosophy of Science, Metaphysics/Epistemology

One of the central complaints about Bayesian probability is that it places no constraints on individual subjectivity in one’s initial probability assignments. Those sympathetic to Bayesian methods ... More


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