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 Keeping Up to Date

Ken Binmore

in Playing for Real: Game Theory

Published in print:
2007
Published Online:
May 2007
ISBN:
9780195300574
eISBN:
9780199783748
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195300574.003.0013
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Microeconomics

This chapter is about Bayesian decision theory. It explains why game theorists model players' beliefs using subjective probability distributions, and how these beliefs are updated using Bayes' rule ... More


Perception as causal inference

Jakob Hohwy

in The Predictive Mind

Published in print:
2013
Published Online:
January 2014
ISBN:
9780199682737
eISBN:
9780191766350
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199682737.003.0002
Subject:
Philosophy, Philosophy of Mind

Our senses are bombarded with input from things in the world. On the basis of that input, we perceive what is out there. The problem that is the focus here is how the brain accomplishes this feat of ... More


Introduction to Probability and Random Variables

M. Vidyasagar

in Hidden Markov Processes: Theory and Applications to Biology

Published in print:
2014
Published Online:
October 2017
ISBN:
9780691133157
eISBN:
9781400850518
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Princeton University Press
DOI:
10.23943/princeton/9780691133157.003.0001
Subject:
Mathematics, Probability / Statistics

This chapter provides an introduction to probability and random variables. Probability theory is an attempt to formalize the notion of uncertainty in the outcome of an experiment. For instance, ... More


Likelihoods and likelihood ratios

Thomas D. Wickens

in Elementary Signal Detection Theory

Published in print:
2001
Published Online:
April 2010
ISBN:
9780195092509
eISBN:
9780199893812
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195092509.003.0009
Subject:
Psychology, Cognitive Psychology

Likelihoods — the probabilities treated as a function of their parameters — are a key concept in statistical decision theory. When applied to signal detection, they give a general method for ... More


Symmetries of Probability Kinematics

Bas C. van Fraassen

in Laws and Symmetry

Published in print:
1989
Published Online:
November 2003
ISBN:
9780198248606
eISBN:
9780191597459
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0198248601.003.0013
Subject:
Philosophy, Philosophy of Science

While it was argued earlier in the book that no rule‐governed notion of rational opinion change could be adequate, there are certainly patterns of normal opinion change (updating in response to new ... More


Inference to the Best Explanation: What Is It? And Why Should We Care?

Igor Douven

in Best Explanations: New Essays on Inference to the Best Explanation

Published in print:
2017
Published Online:
January 2018
ISBN:
9780198746904
eISBN:
9780191809125
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/oso/9780198746904.003.0002
Subject:
Philosophy, Philosophy of Science, Metaphysics/Epistemology

This chapter discusses how critics of Inference to the Best Explanation (IBE) complain that the rule has never been properly articulated. Another common complaint is that whatever the precise ... More


Bayesian Basics and the Scientific Hypothesis

Bradley E. Alger

in Defense of the Scientific Hypothesis: From Reproducibility Crisis to Big Data

Published in print:
2019
Published Online:
February 2021
ISBN:
9780190881481
eISBN:
9780190093761
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/oso/9780190881481.003.0006
Subject:
Neuroscience, Techniques

This chapter covers the basics of Bayesian statistics, emphasizing the conceptual framework for Bayes’ Theorem. It works through several iterations of the theorem to demonstrate how the same equation ... More


The Blessing and the Curse of the Multiplicative Updates

Daniel Friedman and Barry Sinervo

in Evolutionary Games in Natural, Social, and Virtual Worlds

Published in print:
2016
Published Online:
August 2016
ISBN:
9780199981151
eISBN:
9780190466657
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199981151.003.0010
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Behavioural Economics

This chapter shows how replicator dynamics (in a setting with no frequency dependence) correspond to multiplicative updates studied by computer scientists in the context of online learning. The ... More


Taking Chances

Ken Binmore

in Playing for Real Coursepack Edition: A Text on Game Theory

Published in print:
2012
Published Online:
April 2015
ISBN:
9780199924530
eISBN:
9780190261399
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:osobl/9780199924530.003.0003
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Microeconomics

This chapter explains chance moves and Bayes rule which is used for updating conditional probabilities. Chance moves are written down in the game by assuming a player makes random moves. A good ... More


A Brutal Logic

John W. Schiemann

in Does Torture Work?

Published in print:
2015
Published Online:
November 2015
ISBN:
9780190262365
eISBN:
9780190262396
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780190262365.003.0006
Subject:
Political Science, American Politics, Political Theory

If interrogational torture is to work the way its proponents claim, then it must follow a brutal cost – benefit, pain – information logic. This chapter works through this brutal logic, solving for ... More


HIV Screening: Helping Clinicians Make Sense of Test Results to Patients

Gerd Gigerenzer

in Simply Rational: Decision Making in the Real World

Published in print:
2015
Published Online:
April 2015
ISBN:
9780199390076
eISBN:
9780190240684
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199390076.003.0003
Subject:
Psychology, Cognitive Psychology

HIV screening is now recommended by the US Preventive Services Task Force for people aged 15–65 years. However, if clinicians do not understand the actual implications of a test result, patients may ... More


Advanced Inference in the Real World

Amos Golan

in Foundations of Info-Metrics: Modeling, Inference, and Imperfect Information

Published in print:
2017
Published Online:
November 2017
ISBN:
9780199349524
eISBN:
9780199349555
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/oso/9780199349524.003.0006
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Econometrics

In this chapter I continue the voyage into info-metrics in action, with an emphasis on more advanced info-metric inference in real-world environments. I develop a sequence of increasingly complex ... More


Probability

Andrew Gelman and Deborah Nolan

in Teaching Statistics: A Bag of Tricks

Published in print:
2017
Published Online:
September 2017
ISBN:
9780198785699
eISBN:
9780191827518
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/oso/9780198785699.003.0008
Subject:
Mathematics, Educational Mathematics

This chapter contains many classroom activities and demonstrations to help students understand basic probability calculations, including conditional probability and Bayes rule. Many of the activities ... More


How I Got Started Teaching Physicians and Judges Risk Literacy

Gerd Gigerenzer

in Simply Rational: Decision Making in the Real World

Published in print:
2015
Published Online:
April 2015
ISBN:
9780199390076
eISBN:
9780190240684
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199390076.003.0001
Subject:
Psychology, Cognitive Psychology

A personal account of how the author came to recognize the importance of statistical literacy, particularly in the fields of health care and the law, and went on to teach physicians and judges how to ... More


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