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The Reliability of Witnesses and Testimony to the Miraculous

Timothy McGrew and Lydia McGrew

in Probability in the Philosophy of Religion

Published in print:
2012
Published Online:
September 2012
ISBN:
9780199604760
eISBN:
9780191741548
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199604760.003.0003
Subject:
Philosophy, Philosophy of Religion, Metaphysics/Epistemology

The formal representation of the strength of witness testimony has been historically tied to a formula — proposed by Condorcet — that uses a factor representing the reliability of an individual ... More


Moment Priors for Bayesian Model Choice with Applications to Directed Acyclic Graphs *

Guido Consonni and Luca La Rocca

in Bayesian Statistics 9

Published in print:
2011
Published Online:
January 2012
ISBN:
9780199694587
eISBN:
9780191731921
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199694587.003.0004
Subject:
Mathematics, Probability / Statistics

We propose a new method for the objective comparison of two nested models based on non‐local priors. More specifically, starting with a default prior under each of the two models, we construct a ... More


The Logic of Scientific Discovery

Colin Howson

in Hume's Problem: Induction and the Justification of Belief

Published in print:
2000
Published Online:
November 2003
ISBN:
9780198250371
eISBN:
9780191597749
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0198250371.003.0009
Subject:
Philosophy, Philosophy of Science

Applies the results of Ch. 7 to scientific methodology and shows that they give a logical interpretation of the subjective Bayesian theory of inductive inference. This theory is therefore no more ... More


Bayesian Basics and the Scientific Hypothesis

Bradley E. Alger

in Defense of the Scientific Hypothesis: From Reproducibility Crisis to Big Data

Published in print:
2019
Published Online:
February 2021
ISBN:
9780190881481
eISBN:
9780190093761
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/oso/9780190881481.003.0006
Subject:
Neuroscience, Techniques

This chapter covers the basics of Bayesian statistics, emphasizing the conceptual framework for Bayes’ Theorem. It works through several iterations of the theorem to demonstrate how the same equation ... More


Bayesian estimation and inference

M. D. Edge

in Statistical Thinking from Scratch: A Primer for Scientists

Published in print:
2019
Published Online:
October 2019
ISBN:
9780198827627
eISBN:
9780191866463
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/oso/9780198827627.003.0012
Subject:
Biology, Biomathematics / Statistics and Data Analysis / Complexity Studies

Bayesian methods allow researchers to combine precise descriptions of prior beliefs with new data in a principled way. The main object of interest in Bayesian statistics is the posterior ... More


Statistical Inference in Behavioral Research: Traditional and Bayesian Approaches

Alexander Etz, Steven N. Goodman, and Joachim Vandekerckhove

in Research Integrity: Best Practices for the Social and Behavioral Sciences

Published in print:
2022
Published Online:
April 2022
ISBN:
9780190938550
eISBN:
9780190938581
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/oso/9780190938550.003.0007
Subject:
Psychology, Social Psychology

Null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) has long been a mainstay of scientific research, more in some scientific fields than others. It persists despite numerous calls across multiple scientific ... More


Bayesian computation (MCMC)

Ziheng Yang

in Molecular Evolution: A Statistical Approach

Published in print:
2014
Published Online:
August 2014
ISBN:
9780199602605
eISBN:
9780191782251
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199602605.003.0007
Subject:
Biology, Biomathematics / Statistics and Data Analysis / Complexity Studies, Evolutionary Biology / Genetics

This chapter provides a detailed introduction to modern Bayesian computation. The Metropolis–Hastings algorithm is illustrated using a simple example of distance estimation between two sequences. A ... More


Structure and responsiveness

Peter Grindrod CBE

in Mathematical Underpinnings of Analytics: Theory and Applications

Published in print:
2014
Published Online:
March 2015
ISBN:
9780198725091
eISBN:
9780191792526
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198725091.003.0004
Subject:
Mathematics, Analysis, Probability / Statistics

This chapter considers what dynamical models might tell about what has and has not been observed. This includes dynamics of opinions and social contacts which are time dependent and fully coupled. It ... More


Hypothesis Tests and Corroboration

Jan Sprenger and Stephan Hartmann

in Bayesian Philosophy of Science

Published in print:
2019
Published Online:
October 2019
ISBN:
9780199672110
eISBN:
9780191881671
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/oso/9780199672110.003.0009
Subject:
Philosophy, Philosophy of Science

According to Popper and other influential philosophers and scientists, scientific knowledge grows by repeatedly testing our best hypotheses. However, the interpretation of non-significant ... More


Auxiliary Modeling Procedures

David McDowall, Richard McCleary, and Bradley J. Bartos

in Interrupted Time Series Analysis

Published in print:
2019
Published Online:
February 2021
ISBN:
9780190943943
eISBN:
9780190943981
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/oso/9780190943943.003.0005
Subject:
Sociology, Social Research and Statistics

Chapter 5 describes three sets of auxiliary methods that have emerged as add-on supplements to the traditional ARIMA model-building strategy. First, Bayesian information criteria (BIC) can be used to ... More


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