## Bayes's Theorem

*Richard Swinburne (ed.)*

- Published in print:
- 2005
- Published Online:
- January 2012
- ISBN:
- 9780197263419
- eISBN:
- 9780191734175
- Item type:
- book

- Publisher:
- British Academy
- DOI:
- 10.5871/bacad/9780197263419.001.0001
- Subject:
- Philosophy, Logic/Philosophy of Mathematics

Bayes' theorem is a tool for assessing how probable evidence makes some hypothesis. The papers in this book consider the worth and applicability of the theorem. The book sets out the philosophical ... More

## Bayesian Statistics 9

*José M. Bernardo, M. J. Bayarri, James O. Berger, A. P. Dawid, David Heckerman, Adrian F. M. Smith, and Mike West (eds)*

- Published in print:
- 2011
- Published Online:
- January 2012
- ISBN:
- 9780199694587
- eISBN:
- 9780191731921
- Item type:
- book

- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199694587.001.0001
- Subject:
- Mathematics, Probability / Statistics

The Valencia International Meetings on Bayesian Statistics – established in 1979 and held every four years – have been the forum for a definitive overview of current concerns and activities in ... More

## What Doctors Must Know about Medical Practice

*Bernard Gert, Charles M. Culver, and K. Danner Clouser*

### in Bioethics: A systematic approach

- Published in print:
- 2006
- Published Online:
- September 2006
- ISBN:
- 9780195159066
- eISBN:
- 9780199786466
- Item type:
- chapter

- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0195159063.003.0008
- Subject:
- Philosophy, Moral Philosophy

This chapter shows the importance of recognizing the probabilistic nature of medical diagnosis and treatment. It discusses the possibly serious effects of physicians not understanding Bayes theorem, ... More

## Bayesian estimating functions

*Christopher G. Small and Jinfang Wang*

### in Numerical Methods for Nonlinear Estimating Equations

- Published in print:
- 2003
- Published Online:
- September 2007
- ISBN:
- 9780198506881
- eISBN:
- 9780191709258
- Item type:
- chapter

- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198506881.003.0008
- Subject:
- Mathematics, Probability / Statistics

This chapter demonstrates that the numerical methods of earlier chapters are not constrained by statistical philosophy. The theory of Bayesian estimating functions is developed. It is shown that this ... More

## Coda: ‘Of Miracles’

*Colin Howson*

### in Hume's Problem: Induction and the Justification of Belief

- Published in print:
- 2000
- Published Online:
- November 2003
- ISBN:
- 9780198250371
- eISBN:
- 9780191597749
- Item type:
- chapter

- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0198250371.003.0012
- Subject:
- Philosophy, Philosophy of Science

The coda discusses Hume's famous account of miracles in the Enquiry, and his criterion for belief in miracles, and shows that it amounts to a simple argument in the probability calculus.

## The Balance of Probability

*Richard Swinburne*

### in The Resurrection of God Incarnate

- Published in print:
- 2003
- Published Online:
- November 2003
- ISBN:
- 9780199257461
- eISBN:
- 9780191598616
- Item type:
- chapter

- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0199257469.003.0014
- Subject:
- Philosophy, Philosophy of Religion

Summarizes the argument of the book. Given only a moderate amount of evidence from natural theology in favour of the existence of God and his having reason to become incarnate among humans, there is ... More

## Democracy as a Bayesian Persuader

*Robert E. Goodin*

### in Reflective Democracy

- Published in print:
- 2003
- Published Online:
- November 2003
- ISBN:
- 9780199256174
- eISBN:
- 9780191599354
- Item type:
- chapter

- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0199256179.003.0006
- Subject:
- Political Science, Political Theory

Shows how Bayesian thinking should make democratic outcomes so rationally compelling. Bayes's formula provides a mathematical expression for specifying exactly how we ought rationally to update our a ... More

## Hailfinder: Tools for and Experiences with Bayesian Normative Modeling

*Jie W Weiss and David J Weiss*

### in A Science of Decision Making: The Legacy of Ward Edwards

- Published in print:
- 2008
- Published Online:
- January 2009
- ISBN:
- 9780195322989
- eISBN:
- 9780199869206
- Item type:
- chapter

- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195322989.003.0010
- Subject:
- Psychology, Cognitive Psychology

Bayes Nets (BNs) and Influence Diagrams (IDs), new tools that use graphic user interfaces to facilitate representation of complex inference and decision structures, it are the core elements of new ... More

## Decision Technology

*Jie W Weiss and David J Weiss*

### in A Science of Decision Making: The Legacy of Ward Edwards

- Published in print:
- 2008
- Published Online:
- January 2009
- ISBN:
- 9780195322989
- eISBN:
- 9780199869206
- Item type:
- chapter

- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195322989.003.0032
- Subject:
- Psychology, Cognitive Psychology

This chapter focuses on decision technology—the rules and tools that help us make wiser decisions. It begins by reviewing the three rules that are at the heart of most traditional decision ... More

## Keeping Up to Date

*Ken Binmore*

### in Playing for Real: Game Theory

- Published in print:
- 2007
- Published Online:
- May 2007
- ISBN:
- 9780195300574
- eISBN:
- 9780199783748
- Item type:
- chapter

- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195300574.003.0013
- Subject:
- Economics and Finance, Microeconomics

This chapter is about Bayesian decision theory. It explains why game theorists model players' beliefs using subjective probability distributions, and how these beliefs are updated using Bayes' rule ... More

## Knowing What to Believe

*Ken Binmore*

### in Playing for Real: Game Theory

- Published in print:
- 2007
- Published Online:
- May 2007
- ISBN:
- 9780195300574
- eISBN:
- 9780199783748
- Item type:
- chapter

- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195300574.003.0015
- Subject:
- Economics and Finance, Microeconomics

This chapter describes John Harsanyi's theory of so-called games of incomplete information using Poker as a motivating example. The chapter begins by analyzing a simplified version of Von Neumann's ... More

## BEGINNING OF THE PRO-SUBJECTIVE APPROACH

*Shoutir Kishore Chatterjee*

### in Statistical Thought: A Perspective and History

- Published in print:
- 2003
- Published Online:
- September 2007
- ISBN:
- 9780198525318
- eISBN:
- 9780191711657
- Item type:
- chapter

- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198525318.003.0007
- Subject:
- Mathematics, Probability / Statistics

Around the middle of the 18th century, Bayes conceived the idea of treating an unknown parameter as a subjective random variable distributed according to a prior, and inferring about it from its ... More

## The Justification of Explanation

*Richard Swinburne*

### in The Existence of God

- Published in print:
- 2004
- Published Online:
- September 2007
- ISBN:
- 9780199271672
- eISBN:
- 9780191709357
- Item type:
- chapter

- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199271672.003.0004
- Subject:
- Philosophy, Philosophy of Religion

An explanatory hypothesis (whether of the personal or scientific kind) is probable in so far as it makes probable the occurrence of many observed phenomena, the occurrence of which is not probable ... More

## Simple Bayesian Models

*N. Thompson Hobbs and Mevin B. Hooten*

### in Bayesian Models: A Statistical Primer for Ecologists

- Published in print:
- 2015
- Published Online:
- October 2017
- ISBN:
- 9780691159287
- eISBN:
- 9781400866557
- Item type:
- chapter

- Publisher:
- Princeton University Press
- DOI:
- 10.23943/princeton/9780691159287.003.0005
- Subject:
- Biology, Ecology

This chapter lays out the basic principles of Bayesian inference, building on the concepts of probability developed in Chapter 3. It seeks to use the rules of probability to show how Bayes' theorem ... More

## Objective Bayesianism

*Jon Williamson*

### in In Defence of Objective Bayesianism

- Published in print:
- 2010
- Published Online:
- September 2010
- ISBN:
- 9780199228003
- eISBN:
- 9780191711060
- Item type:
- chapter

- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199228003.003.0002
- Subject:
- Mathematics, Probability / Statistics, Logic / Computer Science / Mathematical Philosophy

This chapter reviews the various interpretations of probability (§2.2), assessing them in the light of certain desiderata for a philosophical theory of probability that are presented in §2.1. It is ... More

## Introduction to Probability and Random Variables

*M. Vidyasagar*

### in Hidden Markov Processes: Theory and Applications to Biology

- Published in print:
- 2014
- Published Online:
- October 2017
- ISBN:
- 9780691133157
- eISBN:
- 9781400850518
- Item type:
- chapter

- Publisher:
- Princeton University Press
- DOI:
- 10.23943/princeton/9780691133157.003.0001
- Subject:
- Mathematics, Probability / Statistics

This chapter provides an introduction to probability and random variables. Probability theory is an attempt to formalize the notion of uncertainty in the outcome of an experiment. For instance, ... More

## Plausible Reasoning

*David Hodgson*

### in Rationality + Consciousness = Free Will

- Published in print:
- 2012
- Published Online:
- May 2012
- ISBN:
- 9780199845309
- eISBN:
- 9780199932269
- Item type:
- chapter

- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199845309.003.0004
- Subject:
- Philosophy, Philosophy of Mind, General

In Chapter 3, I consider one very important aspect of our rationality, namely our ability to engage in plausible reasoning; that is, reasoning in which the premises or data do not entail the ... More

## Symmetries of Probability Kinematics

*Bas C. van Fraassen*

### in Laws and Symmetry

- Published in print:
- 1989
- Published Online:
- November 2003
- ISBN:
- 9780198248606
- eISBN:
- 9780191597459
- Item type:
- chapter

- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0198248601.003.0013
- Subject:
- Philosophy, Philosophy of Science

While it was argued earlier in the book that no rule‐governed notion of rational opinion change could be adequate, there are certainly patterns of normal opinion change (updating in response to new ... More

## The Logic of Scientific Discovery

*Colin Howson*

### in Hume's Problem: Induction and the Justification of Belief

- Published in print:
- 2000
- Published Online:
- November 2003
- ISBN:
- 9780198250371
- eISBN:
- 9780191597749
- Item type:
- chapter

- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0198250371.003.0009
- Subject:
- Philosophy, Philosophy of Science

Applies the results of Ch. 7 to scientific methodology and shows that they give a logical interpretation of the subjective Bayesian theory of inductive inference. This theory is therefore no more ... More

## Moment Priors for Bayesian Model Choice with Applications to Directed Acyclic Graphs *

*Guido Consonni and Luca La Rocca*

### in Bayesian Statistics 9

- Published in print:
- 2011
- Published Online:
- January 2012
- ISBN:
- 9780199694587
- eISBN:
- 9780191731921
- Item type:
- chapter

- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199694587.003.0004
- Subject:
- Mathematics, Probability / Statistics

We propose a new method for the objective comparison of two nested models based on non‐local priors. More specifically, starting with a default prior under each of the two models, we construct a ... More