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This chapter examines parties and party system change across the MENA countries since December 2010. The discussion begins with a brief overview of party systems in the region on the eve of the Arab Spring, thereby providing a quick introduction to the selected cases as well as a benchmark against which to measure change. Party system change is determined via indicators such as the effective number of parties, party system fragmentation, electoral volatility and the entry of new parties into the system. The analysis of the indicators of party system change is coupled with a discussion of empirical data on the political environment during and in the immediate aftermath of the elections, including issues such as regime classification, rotation of power, coalition structures, prohibited parties, and societal cleavages. The author explains how - despite the fact that some old regimes fell and elections were held - the traditionally dominant or hegemonic political parties stayed preeminent in a number of MENA countries. Finally, this chapter shows what party system change tells us about the prospects for democracy some five years after the outbreak of the Arab Spring.

This chapter reflects on the existence or not of a new wave of democratisation in the wake of the Arab Spring. It is true that simultaneity, contagion, diffusion and emulation do feature in the political dynamics of change following the Arab Spring. However, rather than a democratic tsunami, there were ebbs and flows of a ‘wave of political change’ that has involved differing transformative processes in each country. Secondly, the author offers a typology of political regimes as well as a classification of MENA regimes prior to the Arab Spring, in order to identify the starting point of political change. Thirdly, different types of political change processes are defined and categorised: two general processes of political change (democratisation and autocratisation); and, five specific processes of political change affecting democracies (democratic regression, democratic deepening and consolidation of democracy) or authoritarianisms (political liberalisation and authoritarian progression). And finally, the author presents the methodological framework used in this book to study political change in the MENA countries. This change is analysed with reference to three dimensions: pluralism and political competition (party/representation systems and electoral integrity); government (constitutional reforms, government and state powers, and good governance; and public rights and liberties (political rights, civil rights, rule of law, and civil society).

This chapter argues that the EU’s response(s) to the Arab Spring can be best described as hybrid and is (are) closely reflective of the very hybridity of the EU’s international identity. On the one hand, despite genuine normative impetuses, a largely realist approach and exclusive identities and roles prevailed in crisis management and short-term reactions driven by intergovernmental decision-making. The EU’s crisis management responses are examined in the cases of three different groups of Arab countries – those having witnessed regime change, civil conflict and regime resilience. On the other hand, a more liberal outlook and inclusive identities and roles were embodied in strategic or long-term responses in the framework of the European Neighbourhood Policy, although the latter’s inherent contradictions and lack of innovation in relation to past policies eventually deprived them of the value-based and progressive effect envisaged on paper. Finally, the EU returned to crisis mode in managing the Syrian refugee inflow that was framed as a ‘crisis’ and took the ‘fortress Europe’ identity to its utmost degree from 2015 onwards.

A key issue in the study of political change is the situation and development of rights and freedoms. Specifically, this chapter studies the impact that the eruption of the Arab Spring has had on these liberties. In order to meet this objective it analyses primary sources, legal reforms and frameworks, and databases and research reports. The question this chapter addresses is whether political changes in the MENA region reflect deepening liberalisation processes through de iure modifications of the civil liberties legislative framework; and the extent to which these changes have had a de facto impact on regimes. In sum, it assesses whether these changes have been sufficient to represent an advance or regression in the democratic character of the region's political regimes. After the analysis, it can be concluded that the situation of civil liberties in the region is either precarious or alarming in the majority of the MENA countries. Furthermore, with the exception of Tunisia, the Arab Spring has not led to a substantive improvement despite the reformist ambition of some countries, and has even led to a significant deterioration in various cases.

This chapter discusses whether and to what extent the internal political changes unfolding in the Middle East and North Africa since 2011 have triggered a shift in the subsystem’s regional order and its institutions. Drawing on the English School and constructivist theories of International Relations, it firstly discusses the impact of the Arab Spring on the ‘constitutional structure’ of the regional order. Next, it examines if we have witnessed a change in some of the fundamental institutions in place in the MENA region (alliances and amity/enmity cleavages, non-intervention, multilateralism and bilateralism, and great power management). It argues that slight changes in the fundamental institutions since the Arab Spring generally respond to a more fundamental systemic change that took place in the context of the 2003 war in Iraq. However, despite attempts to challenge it, the constitutional structure of the regional order remains intact.

The introductory chapter explains the four sections of the book. The first section deals with the theoretical and methodological analysis of changes that have occurred since 2011 as a result of the Arab Spring: in political regimes, from a Comparative Politics approach; and in the MENA region, from an International Relations perspective. The second section includes an analysis of the transformations in party systems, the elections, the constitutional reforms undertaken, changes in government and power relations within political regimes, advances or deteriorations in governance in the MENA countries, the role of civil society in processes of political change, and the current situation regarding rights and civil liberties, and particularly in media and press freedom in the MENA countries. Section III analyses the political consequences of the processes of change at both regional and international level. The section thus takes into account the importance of the MENA region on the international scene, the role played by international powers in the processes of political change and in the conflicts that have erupted since the Arab Spring, the configuration of new political interests, regional powers, and alliances, and revised understandings of the threats facing the region and the international community. Finally, section IV presents the processes of political change undertaken as a consequence of the Arab Spring according to the typology established in chapter 1.

This chapter establishes a general framework that enables to assess the situation of civil society in the MENA region, before and after the Arab Spring. The Arab Spring undermined many of the theories that dwelt on the depoliticisation of civil society, its inability to influence the political agenda and the customary use made of it as an instrument of authoritarian regimes. Although this activism appeared to take on new forms, it was not spontaneously generated, but included an accumulation of baggage from the past, in constant relationship and tension with the state; hence, along with associations concerned with charity work and development, there also existed another more critical and politically committed type of organisation, in which the theory of the persistence of authoritarianism had not shown sufficient interest. Likewise, the Arab Spring questioned the institutionalised, structured, organisational nature of civil society that transitology usually supports. During the uprisings, none of the traditional or formal civil society organisations came to the fore, either in their interventionist (NGOs) or their most contestatory dimensions (human rights organisations, Islamist groups, or more politicised platforms). Thus, the chapter shows that it is necessary to go beyond a certain reductionist view of what civil society is and to propose another concept, much more dynamic, creative and horizontalist that involves not only hierarchical organisational structures, but also other spaces of mobilisation in which the citizenry can express its social, political and economic commitment.

This chapter analyses the MENA countries that have experienced negative changes following the Arab Spring: a process of autocratisation in Turkey, authoritarian progressions in Kuwait and Bahrain, and the fragmentation of state authority in Syria and Iraq. Turkey has transited from being a defective democracy to authoritarianism (due to a concentration of power in the hands of president Erdoğan), which has been a more pronounced tendency since the attempted coup d’état in July 2016. Kuwait, one of the ‘less authoritarian’ Arab countries before 2011, has undergone an authoritarian progression as a consequence of the emir’s attempts to control parliament and approve restrictive laws regarding rights and liberties. Likewise, authoritarian progression in Bahrain has been the consequence of a decline in political competition - as a result of the withdrawal of opposition movements from parliament and state repression against any type of opposition. The democratic regime established in 2005 in Iraq currently faces enormous concerns: disabling sectarism, weak governance, and the occupation of much of northwestern Iraq by IS. Violence directed by al-Assad’s regime against protesters provoked a civil war on several fronts and a breakdown of state authority in Syria. The chapter shows that these conflicts in the Middle East, as well as in Yemen, have made the region unstable and represent an enormous international challenge.

This chapter analyses the change (or continuity) of MENA regimes in a post-Arab Spring context, focusing on governments and power relationships. This chapter firstly analyses the place governments occupy in their respective political systems; how they are perceived by their populations; and the extent to which are they capable of managing violence and imposing their authority across the whole of their national territory. Governments are responsible for the policies carried out in their countries. Thus, many of the social protests - predominantly focused on the high levels of corruption - were directed against governments. However, while governments are perceived to be the institutions responsible for meeting citizens’ welfare needs, there are other non-elected institutions (formal or informal) with significant decision-making powers that are non-accountable, such as the presidents of the republic, the monarchs, and other national (the armed forces in the case of Egypt; armed groups in the cases of Libya, Syria and Yemen) or international actors (such as Saudi Arabia and Iran). On the other hand, this chapter studies changes in the power structure. The author finds evidence of greater power concentration, with the exception of the new democratic regime of Tunisia.

This chapter analyses president Obama’s foreign policy in the MENA region. The first section focuses on the discourse and key strategic documents of the Obama administration. The purpose is to identify the place that the MENA region has in the order of priorities of his foreign policy. The second section analyses the US foreign policy towards some of the states affected by the Arab Spring; while the third analyses the participation of the US in various conflicts that have marked this change process. The fourth explores the question of the nuclear agreement with Iran and its effects on Israel, which is one of the main allies of the US in the region. The final chapter pulls together the conclusions. In some cases the US used diplomatic tools to promote political change; this is the case of Tunisia, Egypt or Yemen. In other cases the American decision-makers defended a status quo policy, such as Bahrain. In the cases of Libya, Syria and Iraq, the US was involved in different military interventions to promote political change or to fight terrorist groups like the self-proclaimed Islamic State (IS), as a consequence of the Arab Spring. The chapter concludes that the Obama Administration did not have a coherent strategy to the region, offering different reactions to different states with different contexts and interests. Nevertheless, the ascent of the IS and the Russian influence on the region, make that the MENA region retains its strategic and vital role for the American foreign policy.

This chapter examines the political liberalisation processes undertaken in MENA countries such as Morocco, Jordan, Oman and Algeria. As on previous occasions, the post-2011 political liberalisation processes were planned and led by the authoritarian rulers in a top-down fashion, acting as an escape valve for authoritarian regimes to defuse social discontent. These reforms were largely cosmetic and therefore have not led to a change in the authoritarian nature of the political regimes. The reforms focused mainly on two aspects: reforms of the constitution and party and electoral laws and changes in each regime’s degree of representation and/or political participation. Although there are positive aspects, the reforms have not brought about substantial changes in power relations. Only in the case of Morocco did these changes produce alternation in government although even there, the repercussions were limited by the need for the election winning party to form a coalition government and because of royal interference in the executive.

This chapter analyses the state of good governance following the main indicators elaborated by the World Bank in the MENA region. International institutions have been criticised for having unrealistic or unreliable criteria in relation to good governance; however this chapter argues that they do sufficiently represent what good governance should be about and in what kind of environment it should occur. The contention here is that the lack of good governance in the MENA region is not a story of poor achievement related to criteria or adaptability, but a much broader failure of international institutional policies in the developing world, but at the same time, local MENA political actors greatly contributed to such failure. There are a number of factors that explain the failure of good governance policies in the Middle East and North Africa and they are related to both structural weaknesses in the way in which they were thought out – erroneous theoretical assumptions – and to contingent issues related to their implementation on the ground. Finally, various studies on the state of governance and its indicators over the last decade, including the Arab Spring period, have demonstrated that the political, economic and social situation is no better than before the uprisings.

This chapter studies the democratic transitions following the fall of the authoritarian rulers in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen. The chapter shows that the only successful democratisation occurred in Tunisia thanks to agreements between political actors, concessions from a dominant party and a strong and participative civil society. On the contrary, despite the Egyptian transition taking place in a similar scenario of polarisation between Islamist and secular parties as in Tunisia, Egyptian transition failed because of a lack of agreement between political forces, an exclusionary process led by the Islamists, and the interference of the army in political affairs. Democratic transition also failed in Libya, due to the lack of prior institutional architecture and of experience of party participation and political groups. Finally, the model of democratic transition that was carried out in Yemen was favourable to the achievement of democracy. It sought a broad social and political consensus for the new state before holding elections and approving a constitution, and had the involvement of the international community in the design and implementation of the transitional road map. However, empowerment of old regime elites in the transition process, the exclusion of revolutionary movements, the lack of consensus to satisfy the demands of the independence movement in the south, and antagonism between political forces and their regional backers have doomed the democratic transition to failure.

The objective of this chapter is to explore the Arab region’s media systems in order to assess the sources of information available to civil society. The chapter is divided into four parts, which provide: first, an account of the political and regulatory environment in which the media have to operate; second, a description of traditional media; third, an overview of satellite television, which is paramount in the region; and fourth, an analysis of internet access in the region. The data analysed in this chapter clearly illustrates that one of the results of the Arab Spring has been the attempt to further control information flows. With the exception of a few countries, especially Tunisia and Algeria, almost all the governments in the region have adopted rules in the hope of controlling information in a more effective way. Of course, this does not mean that citizens are unable to obtain political information through other channels than those accepted by governments. Satellite TV is a first fracture in the closed ecosystem, but events in recent years suggest that it is not entirely free from attempts at regularisation and control. Nonetheless, there are other tools to serve the public that can be treated as sources of information and, therefore, as media: namely the Internet and all its facets.

This chapter presents a comparative contextual analysis of parliamentary and presidential elections held in the MENA countries between 2011 and 2015, in order to clarify the relation between electoral integrity, electoral context and political regime. With this aim in mind, the analysis pursues: (1) identifying the evolution path of these three variables; (2) testing the existence or absence of correlation between them; and 3) classifying the countries in view of their last electoral, contextual and regime model records. The results suggest three evidences. The first one refers to the heterogeneous behaviour of the variables, including progress, regression, fluctuation and stagnation patterns. The second is that positive correlation between them exists just in three cases, where progress (Tunisia), fluctuation (Egypt) and stagnation (Kuwait) are respectively the common trend. The third is that countries may be classified within two categories, considering if (i) the current level of electoral integrity corresponds with the general level of freedoms, rights and governance that contextualises the holding of elections, and (ii) the level of electoral integrity is either higher or lower than might be expected in relation to the defining characteristics of the electoral context and the regime.