*Jerome L. Stein*

- Published in print:
- 2006
- Published Online:
- May 2006
- ISBN:
- 9780199280575
- eISBN:
- 9780191603501
- Item type:
- chapter

- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0199280576.003.0004
- Subject:
- Economics and Finance, Financial Economics

The NATREX is a model of the equilibrium real exchange rate, which is where the real exchange rate is heading. The NATREX model has two components: the long-run equilibrium real exchange rate and the ...
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The NATREX is a model of the equilibrium real exchange rate, which is where the real exchange rate is heading. The NATREX model has two components: the long-run equilibrium real exchange rate and the dynamics of adjustment of the medium-run equilibrium to the long-run equilibrium. In the medium-run equilibrium, the ratio of the external debt/GDP is predetermined, and the real exchange rate is associated with both internal and external balance. The real exchange rate and debt ratio are endogenous variables. In full stock-flow equilibrium, the long run equilibrium real exchange rate and external debt ratio depend upon the vector of time varying fundamentals, which are productivity and thrift in the country relative to the rest of the world.Less

The NATREX is a model of the equilibrium real exchange rate, which is where the real exchange rate is heading. The NATREX model has two components: the long-run equilibrium real exchange rate and the dynamics of adjustment of the medium-run equilibrium to the long-run equilibrium. In the medium-run equilibrium, the ratio of the external debt/GDP is predetermined, and the real exchange rate is associated with both internal and external balance. The real exchange rate and debt ratio are endogenous variables. In full stock-flow equilibrium, the long run equilibrium real exchange rate and external debt ratio depend upon the vector of time varying fundamentals, which are productivity and thrift in the country relative to the rest of the world.

*Jerome L. Stein*

- Published in print:
- 2006
- Published Online:
- May 2006
- ISBN:
- 9780199280575
- eISBN:
- 9780191603501
- Item type:
- book

- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0199280576.001.0001
- Subject:
- Economics and Finance, Financial Economics

This book focuses on the interaction between equilibrium real exchange rates, optimal external debt, endogenous optimal growth, and current account balances in a world of uncertainty. The theoretical ...
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This book focuses on the interaction between equilibrium real exchange rates, optimal external debt, endogenous optimal growth, and current account balances in a world of uncertainty. The theoretical parts result from interdisciplinary research between economics and state of the art applied mathematics. From the economic theory and the mathematics of stochastic optimal control, benchmarks are derived for the optimal debt and equilibrium real exchange rate in an environment where both the return on capital and the real rate of interest are stochastic variables. The theoretically derived equilibrium real exchange rate — the natural real exchange rate (NATREX) — is where the real exchange rate is heading. These benchmarks are applied to answer the following questions: What is a theoretically based empirical measure of a “misaligned” exchange rate that increases the probability of a significant depreciation or a currency crisis? What is a theoretically based empirical measure of an “excess” debt that increases the probability of a debt crisis? What is the interaction between an excess debt and a misaligned exchange rate? The theory is applied to evaluate the Euro exchange rate, the exchange rates of the transition economies of Eastern Europe, the sustainability of U.S. current account deficits, and derives warning signals of the Asian crises, defaults, and debt crises in emerging markets.Less

This book focuses on the interaction between equilibrium real exchange rates, optimal external debt, endogenous optimal growth, and current account balances in a world of uncertainty. The theoretical parts result from interdisciplinary research between economics and state of the art applied mathematics. From the economic theory and the mathematics of stochastic optimal control, benchmarks are derived for the optimal debt and equilibrium real exchange rate in an environment where both the return on capital and the real rate of interest are stochastic variables. The theoretically derived equilibrium real exchange rate — the natural real exchange rate (NATREX) — is where the real exchange rate is heading. These benchmarks are applied to answer the following questions: What is a theoretically based empirical measure of a “misaligned” exchange rate that increases the probability of a significant depreciation or a currency crisis? What is a theoretically based empirical measure of an “excess” debt that increases the probability of a debt crisis? What is the interaction between an excess debt and a misaligned exchange rate? The theory is applied to evaluate the Euro exchange rate, the exchange rates of the transition economies of Eastern Europe, the sustainability of U.S. current account deficits, and derives warning signals of the Asian crises, defaults, and debt crises in emerging markets.

*Polly Reynolds Allen*

- Published in print:
- 1998
- Published Online:
- November 2003
- ISBN:
- 9780198293064
- eISBN:
- 9780191596940
- Item type:
- chapter

- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0198293062.003.0001
- Subject:
- Economics and Finance, Macro- and Monetary Economics, International

An outline is given of the NATREX approach to determining equilibrium real exchange rates as presented in the book. The underlying framework, implications, supporting empirical evidence, and relation ...
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An outline is given of the NATREX approach to determining equilibrium real exchange rates as presented in the book. The underlying framework, implications, supporting empirical evidence, and relation to other approaches are discussed, emphasizing the economic scenarios and the meaning of both the mathematical models and econometrics contained in detail in the subsequent chapters.Less

An outline is given of the NATREX approach to determining equilibrium real exchange rates as presented in the book. The underlying framework, implications, supporting empirical evidence, and relation to other approaches are discussed, emphasizing the economic scenarios and the meaning of both the mathematical models and econometrics contained in detail in the subsequent chapters.

*Jerome L. Stein and Polly Reynolds Allen*

- Published in print:
- 1998
- Published Online:
- November 2003
- ISBN:
- 9780198293064
- eISBN:
- 9780191596940
- Item type:
- book

- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/0198293062.001.0001
- Subject:
- Economics and Finance, Macro- and Monetary Economics, International

The NATREX approach offers an alternative paradigm to the Purchasing Power Parity for equilibrium real exchange rates. NATREX is the acronym for NATural Real EXchange, referring to a medium‐run, ...
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The NATREX approach offers an alternative paradigm to the Purchasing Power Parity for equilibrium real exchange rates. NATREX is the acronym for NATural Real EXchange, referring to a medium‐run, inter‐cyclical equilibrium real exchange rate, determined by real, fundamental factors. Importantly, the NATREX is a moving equilibrium real exchange rate, responding to continual changes in exogenous and endogenous real fundamentals. In a world of high capital mobility, the fundamentals of thrift, productivity, capital intensity, and net debt to foreigners become particularly important, influencing desired long‐term capital flows and altering the equilibrium real exchange rate. The NATREX approach identifies and models the fundamental determinants of equilibrium real exchange rates, consistent with their recent empirical movements in various countries.The NATREX model is a dynamic stock‐flow growth model. The goal of the NATREX approach is primarily empirical – to explain movements of medium‐ to long‐run real exchange rates in terms of the fundamental real variables of thrift and productivity, assuming that real exchange rates do adjust toward their equilibrium level, although with a lag. A family of consistent general equilibrium models – of rational, optimizing behavior, determining medium‐run equilibrium real exchange rates – forms the core of the NATREX approach. These models provide logical economic justifications for the empirical results.Less

The NATREX approach offers an alternative paradigm to the Purchasing Power Parity for equilibrium real exchange rates. NATREX is the acronym for *NAT*ural *R*eal *EX*change, referring to a medium‐run, inter‐cyclical equilibrium real exchange rate, determined by real, fundamental factors. Importantly, the NATREX is a *moving* equilibrium real exchange rate, responding to continual changes in exogenous and endogenous real fundamentals. In a world of high capital mobility, the fundamentals of thrift, productivity, capital intensity, and net debt to foreigners become particularly important, influencing desired long‐term capital flows and altering the equilibrium real exchange rate. The NATREX approach identifies and models the fundamental determinants of equilibrium real exchange rates, consistent with their recent empirical movements in various countries.

The NATREX model is a dynamic stock‐flow growth model. The goal of the NATREX approach is primarily empirical – to explain movements of medium‐ to long‐run real exchange rates in terms of the fundamental real variables of thrift and productivity, assuming that real exchange rates do adjust toward their equilibrium level, although with a lag. A family of consistent general equilibrium models – of rational, optimizing behavior, determining medium‐run equilibrium real exchange rates – forms the core of the NATREX approach. These models provide logical economic justifications for the empirical results.