Tim Lenton
- Published in print:
- 2013
- Published Online:
- January 2014
- ISBN:
- 9780197265536
- eISBN:
- 9780191760327
- Item type:
- chapter
- Publisher:
- British Academy
- DOI:
- 10.5871/bacad/9780197265536.003.0002
- Subject:
- Political Science, Environmental Politics
Several tipping points in the Earth system could be crossed this century, due to our collective impact on the planet interacting with its natural patterns of variability. This chapter summarizes ...
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Several tipping points in the Earth system could be crossed this century, due to our collective impact on the planet interacting with its natural patterns of variability. This chapter summarizes existing information on the likelihood and impacts of tipping different elements of the Earth system, and uses that information to produce a tentative assessment of the relative risks that they pose. It then considers the prospects for early warning of approaching tipping points, as a means of helping manage the risks. The chapter is structured around a series of simple questions about Earth system tipping points: What are they? Where are they? How close are they? Which carry the greatest impacts? What is the worst-case scenario? What early warning signs should we be looking for? When can we get reliable predictions? How should we respond?Less
Several tipping points in the Earth system could be crossed this century, due to our collective impact on the planet interacting with its natural patterns of variability. This chapter summarizes existing information on the likelihood and impacts of tipping different elements of the Earth system, and uses that information to produce a tentative assessment of the relative risks that they pose. It then considers the prospects for early warning of approaching tipping points, as a means of helping manage the risks. The chapter is structured around a series of simple questions about Earth system tipping points: What are they? Where are they? How close are they? Which carry the greatest impacts? What is the worst-case scenario? What early warning signs should we be looking for? When can we get reliable predictions? How should we respond?
