Richard McCleary, David McDowall, and Bradley Bartos
- Published in print:
- 2017
- Published Online:
- May 2017
- ISBN:
- 9780190661557
- eISBN:
- 9780190661595
- Item type:
- book
- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/oso/9780190661557.001.0001
- Subject:
- Sociology, Methodology and Statistics
Design and Analysis of Time Series Experiments develops a comprehensive set of models and methods for drawing causal inferences from time series. Example analyses of social, behavioral, and ...
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Design and Analysis of Time Series Experiments develops a comprehensive set of models and methods for drawing causal inferences from time series. Example analyses of social, behavioral, and biomedical time series illustrate a general strategy for building AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) impact models. The classic Box-Jenkins-Tiao model-building strategy is supplemented with recent auxiliary tests for transformation, differencing, and model selection. The validity of causal inferences is approached from two complementary directions. The four-validity system of Cook and Campbell relies on ruling out discrete threats to statistical conclusion, internal, construct, and external validity. The Rubin system causal model relies on the identification of counterfactual time series. The two approaches to causal validity are shown to be complementary and are illustrated with a construction of a synthetic control time series. Example analyses make optimal use of graphical illustrations. Mathematical methods used in the example analyses are explicated in technical appendices, including expectation algebra, sequences and series, maximum likelihood, Box-Cox transformation analyses and probability.Less
Design and Analysis of Time Series Experiments develops a comprehensive set of models and methods for drawing causal inferences from time series. Example analyses of social, behavioral, and biomedical time series illustrate a general strategy for building AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) impact models. The classic Box-Jenkins-Tiao model-building strategy is supplemented with recent auxiliary tests for transformation, differencing, and model selection. The validity of causal inferences is approached from two complementary directions. The four-validity system of Cook and Campbell relies on ruling out discrete threats to statistical conclusion, internal, construct, and external validity. The Rubin system causal model relies on the identification of counterfactual time series. The two approaches to causal validity are shown to be complementary and are illustrated with a construction of a synthetic control time series. Example analyses make optimal use of graphical illustrations. Mathematical methods used in the example analyses are explicated in technical appendices, including expectation algebra, sequences and series, maximum likelihood, Box-Cox transformation analyses and probability.
Philip Dawid, William Twining, and Mimi Vasilaki (eds)
- Published in print:
- 2011
- Published Online:
- January 2013
- ISBN:
- 9780197264843
- eISBN:
- 9780191754050
- Item type:
- book
- Publisher:
- British Academy
- DOI:
- 10.5871/bacad/9780197264843.001.0001
- Subject:
- Sociology, Methodology and Statistics
Evidence — its nature and interpretation — is the key to many topical debates and concerns such as global warming, evolution, the search for weapons of mass destruction, DNA profiling, and ...
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Evidence — its nature and interpretation — is the key to many topical debates and concerns such as global warming, evolution, the search for weapons of mass destruction, DNA profiling, and evidence-based medicine. In 2004, University College London launched a cross-disciplinary research programme ‘Evidence, Inference and Enquiry’ to explore the question: ‘Can there be an integrated multidisciplinary science of evidence?’ While this question was hotly contested and no clear final consensus emerged, much was learned on the journey. This book, based on the closing conference of the programme held at the British Academy in December 2007, illustrates the complexity of the subject, with seventeen chapters written from a diversity of perspectives including Archaeology, Computer Science, Economics, Education, Health, History, Law, Psychology, Philosophy, and Statistics. General issues covered include principles and systems for handling complex evidence, evidence for policy-making, and human evidence-processing, as well as the very possibility of systematising the study of evidence.Less
Evidence — its nature and interpretation — is the key to many topical debates and concerns such as global warming, evolution, the search for weapons of mass destruction, DNA profiling, and evidence-based medicine. In 2004, University College London launched a cross-disciplinary research programme ‘Evidence, Inference and Enquiry’ to explore the question: ‘Can there be an integrated multidisciplinary science of evidence?’ While this question was hotly contested and no clear final consensus emerged, much was learned on the journey. This book, based on the closing conference of the programme held at the British Academy in December 2007, illustrates the complexity of the subject, with seventeen chapters written from a diversity of perspectives including Archaeology, Computer Science, Economics, Education, Health, History, Law, Psychology, Philosophy, and Statistics. General issues covered include principles and systems for handling complex evidence, evidence for policy-making, and human evidence-processing, as well as the very possibility of systematising the study of evidence.
Charles C. Ragin and Peer C. Fiss
- Published in print:
- 2016
- Published Online:
- September 2017
- ISBN:
- 9780226414379
- eISBN:
- 9780226414546
- Item type:
- book
- Publisher:
- University of Chicago Press
- DOI:
- 10.7208/chicago/9780226414546.001.0001
- Subject:
- Sociology, Methodology and Statistics
The central analytic focus of most policy-oriented social research today is the assessment of the relative importance of competing independent variables in multivariate analyses. A researcher might ...
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The central analytic focus of most policy-oriented social research today is the assessment of the relative importance of competing independent variables in multivariate analyses. A researcher might ask: “Which variable has the strongest impact on life chances: education, test scores, or family background?” In this book we offer an alternative to the conventional approach to the analysis of policy-relevant social data. Instead of asking, "What is the net effect of each independent variable on the outcome?" we ask, "What combinations of causally relevant conditions are consistently linked to the outcome?" Thus, in our approach causal conditions do not compete with each other; rather, they combine in different ways to produce the outcome. This alternate approach, which utilizes set-analytic techniques, allows for the possibility that there may be several paths to the same outcome, which in turn may differ by race and gender. We illustrate this new approach via a re-analysis of the Bell Curve data. We show that by viewing cases intersectionally and causes conjuncturally, researchers can address nuanced questions about the causal conditions linked to poverty. Our central findings demonstrate dramatic racial differences in the connections between advantages versus disadvantages and the experience versus the avoidance of poverty.Less
The central analytic focus of most policy-oriented social research today is the assessment of the relative importance of competing independent variables in multivariate analyses. A researcher might ask: “Which variable has the strongest impact on life chances: education, test scores, or family background?” In this book we offer an alternative to the conventional approach to the analysis of policy-relevant social data. Instead of asking, "What is the net effect of each independent variable on the outcome?" we ask, "What combinations of causally relevant conditions are consistently linked to the outcome?" Thus, in our approach causal conditions do not compete with each other; rather, they combine in different ways to produce the outcome. This alternate approach, which utilizes set-analytic techniques, allows for the possibility that there may be several paths to the same outcome, which in turn may differ by race and gender. We illustrate this new approach via a re-analysis of the Bell Curve data. We show that by viewing cases intersectionally and causes conjuncturally, researchers can address nuanced questions about the causal conditions linked to poverty. Our central findings demonstrate dramatic racial differences in the connections between advantages versus disadvantages and the experience versus the avoidance of poverty.
Wendy Russell, Stuart Lester, and Hilary Smith (eds)
- Published in print:
- 2017
- Published Online:
- September 2017
- ISBN:
- 9781447330035
- eISBN:
- 9781447330080
- Item type:
- book
- Publisher:
- Policy Press
- DOI:
- 10.1332/policypress/9781447330035.001.0001
- Subject:
- Sociology, Methodology and Statistics
This book presents a collection of research projects carried out by experienced practitioners in the play sector in the UK and US who were also students, graduates and staff on the University of ...
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This book presents a collection of research projects carried out by experienced practitioners in the play sector in the UK and US who were also students, graduates and staff on the University of Gloucestershire’s postgraduate programme in children’s play. It offers a range of approaches to researching children’s play and adults’ roles in supporting it, including some that move beyond traditional qualitative approaches to explore what more might be said through post-qualitative methodologies. It also offers multi- and trans-disciplinary perspectives on children’s play and adults’ relationships with it, presenting students and practitioners alike with diverse perspectives to complement the dominant orthodoxy of developmental psychology. The book shares reflections on the research process; explores issues concerning researching children’s play and adults working to support it; showcases a diversity of contexts and sites of investigation into children’s play; and draws on diverse disciplinary perspectives on children’s play and adults’ relationships with it. Topics include adults’ memories of their own childhood play; adults’ role in the co-production of spaces where children can play, including adventure playgrounds, out of school clubs, children’s zoos, children’s museums and public space; perspectives on the nature and value of adventure playgrounds and playwork; therapeutic approaches to playwork; playwork and wellbeing; supporting the play of severely disabled children and young people; play and contemporary art practice; children’s use of technology in a playground; and children’s play in public spaces. Research methodologies include ethnography, auto-ethnography, oral histories, participatory action research, case study; performative, narrative and non-representational approaches.Less
This book presents a collection of research projects carried out by experienced practitioners in the play sector in the UK and US who were also students, graduates and staff on the University of Gloucestershire’s postgraduate programme in children’s play. It offers a range of approaches to researching children’s play and adults’ roles in supporting it, including some that move beyond traditional qualitative approaches to explore what more might be said through post-qualitative methodologies. It also offers multi- and trans-disciplinary perspectives on children’s play and adults’ relationships with it, presenting students and practitioners alike with diverse perspectives to complement the dominant orthodoxy of developmental psychology. The book shares reflections on the research process; explores issues concerning researching children’s play and adults working to support it; showcases a diversity of contexts and sites of investigation into children’s play; and draws on diverse disciplinary perspectives on children’s play and adults’ relationships with it. Topics include adults’ memories of their own childhood play; adults’ role in the co-production of spaces where children can play, including adventure playgrounds, out of school clubs, children’s zoos, children’s museums and public space; perspectives on the nature and value of adventure playgrounds and playwork; therapeutic approaches to playwork; playwork and wellbeing; supporting the play of severely disabled children and young people; play and contemporary art practice; children’s use of technology in a playground; and children’s play in public spaces. Research methodologies include ethnography, auto-ethnography, oral histories, participatory action research, case study; performative, narrative and non-representational approaches.
The Chivalric Turn
Comparative Grand Strategy
Night Raiders
Ocean Recovery
The Oxford Guide to Middle High German
Pornography
The Primacy of Metaphysics
Proportionality Balancing and Constitutional Governance
Reasoning
