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Beyond Regression: The Need for Predictive Models

Rein Taagepera

in Making Social Sciences More Scientific: The Need for Predictive Models

Published in print:
2008
Published Online:
September 2008
ISBN:
9780199534661
eISBN:
9780191715921
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199534661.003.0018
Subject:
Political Science, Comparative Politics, Political Economy

Society needs more from social sciences than they have delivered, and this book offers openings. To the society at large, quantitative social scientists presently seem no better at prediction than ... More


The Duvergerian Agenda

Rein Taagepera

in Predicting Party Sizes: The Logic of Simple Electoral Systems

Published in print:
2007
Published Online:
September 2007
ISBN:
9780199287741
eISBN:
9780191713408
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199287741.003.0007
Subject:
Political Science, Democratization

Starting with the characteristics of the electoral systems, the ‘Duvergerian agenda’ aims at predicting the average seat and vote share distributions of parties, the effective number of parties, and ... More


Addressing Tipping Points for a Precarious Future

Timothy O'Riordan and Timothy Lenton (eds)

Published in print:
2013
Published Online:
January 2014
ISBN:
9780197265536
eISBN:
9780191760327
Item type:
book
Publisher:
British Academy
DOI:
10.5871/bacad/9780197265536.001.0001
Subject:
Political Science, Environmental Politics

This book places tipping points in their scientific, economic, governmental, creative, and spiritual contexts. It seeks to offer a comprehensive set of interpretations on the meaning and application ... More


Prediction

J. R. LUCAS

in The Freedom of the Will

Published in print:
1970
Published Online:
October 2011
ISBN:
9780198243434
eISBN:
9780191680687
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198243434.003.0007
Subject:
Philosophy, Metaphysics/Epistemology, Moral Philosophy

Not every prediction poses a problem for freedom. Most of our actual predictions about human actions profess both to be fallible and to be dependent on the agent concerned. There is nearly always the ... More


The Book of Evidence

Peter Achinstein

Published in print:
2001
Published Online:
November 2003
ISBN:
9780195143898
eISBN:
9780199833023
Item type:
book
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0195143892.001.0001
Subject:
Philosophy, Philosophy of Science

What is required for a fact to be evidence for a hypothesis? In this book Achinstein introduces four concepts of evidence, which he calls potential, veridical, epistemic‐situation, and subjective. He ... More


Metaphors and Systemic Change

Tim O’Riordan, Tim Lenton, and Ian Christie

in Addressing Tipping Points for a Precarious Future

Published in print:
2013
Published Online:
January 2014
ISBN:
9780197265536
eISBN:
9780191760327
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
British Academy
DOI:
10.5871/bacad/9780197265536.003.0001
Subject:
Political Science, Environmental Politics

Tipping points are metaphors of sudden change, of fear, of falling, of foreboding, and of failure. Tipping points are thresholds of tolerance, of bifurcation, and of transformation which are built ... More


Minimizing Risks: Diabetes Research in Newborns

Lainie Friedman Ross

in Children in Medical Research: Access versus Protection

Published in print:
2006
Published Online:
May 2006
ISBN:
9780199273287
eISBN:
9780191603655
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0199273286.003.0011
Subject:
Philosophy, Moral Philosophy

This chapter examines the meta-ethical question regarding subject selection in newborn screening for diabetes. Data show that over 90% of parents give permission for diabetes screening of their ... More


Diabetes Prediction and Prevention Research in Childhood

Lainie Friedman Ross

in Children in Medical Research: Access versus Protection

Published in print:
2006
Published Online:
May 2006
ISBN:
9780199273287
eISBN:
9780191603655
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0199273286.003.0012
Subject:
Philosophy, Moral Philosophy

This chapter provides an overview of recent diabetes prediction and prediction/prevention studies beyond the newborn period. It examines whether these studies are permissible under current federal ... More


Why Social Sciences Are Not Scientific Enough

Rein Taagepera

in Making Social Sciences More Scientific: The Need for Predictive Models

Published in print:
2008
Published Online:
September 2008
ISBN:
9780199534661
eISBN:
9780191715921
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199534661.003.0001
Subject:
Political Science, Comparative Politics, Political Economy

Science is not only about the empirical “What is?” but also very much about the conceptual “How should it be on logical grounds?” Statistical approaches are essentially descriptive, while ... More


Physicists Multiply, Social Scientists Add—Even When It Does Not Add Up

Rein Taagepera

in Making Social Sciences More Scientific: The Need for Predictive Models

Published in print:
2008
Published Online:
September 2008
ISBN:
9780199534661
eISBN:
9780191715921
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199534661.003.0005
Subject:
Political Science, Comparative Politics, Political Economy

Most physics equations include few variables and at most one freely adjustable constant, which multiply or divide. In contrast, regression equations favored in social sciences often have many ... More


All Hypotheses Are Not Created Equal

Rein Taagepera

in Making Social Sciences More Scientific: The Need for Predictive Models

Published in print:
2008
Published Online:
September 2008
ISBN:
9780199534661
eISBN:
9780191715921
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199534661.003.0006
Subject:
Political Science, Comparative Politics, Political Economy

The null hypothesis offers close to null prediction. Directional hypotheses are relatively easy to satisfy and offer correspondingly vague predictions. Quantitative hypotheses (models) are hard to ... More


Epistemology and the Psychology of Human Judgment

Michael A Bishop and J. D. Trout

Published in print:
2005
Published Online:
July 2005
ISBN:
9780195162295
eISBN:
9780199835539
Item type:
book
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0195162293.001.0001
Subject:
Philosophy, Metaphysics/Epistemology

This book presents a new approach to epistemology (the theory of human knowledge and reasoning). Its approach aims to liberate epistemology from the scholastic debates of standard analytic ... More


The Chemical Bond in Inorganic Chemistry: The Bond Valence Model

I. David Brown

Published in print:
2006
Published Online:
January 2010
ISBN:
9780199298815
eISBN:
9780191708879
Item type:
book
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199298815.001.0001
Subject:
Physics, Crystallography

The bond valence model, which is derived from the ionic model, is expressed through a number of rules and equations that determines which acid-base bond structures can exist. Chief among these rules ... More


All Indices Are Not Created Equal

Rein Taagepera

in Making Social Sciences More Scientific: The Need for Predictive Models

Published in print:
2008
Published Online:
September 2008
ISBN:
9780199534661
eISBN:
9780191715921
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199534661.003.0013
Subject:
Political Science, Comparative Politics, Political Economy

Models are tested with data, but also data are tested by agreement with conceptual models. When competing indices exist to measure the same phenomena, one should use the ones that agree with ... More


Government Formation

Ian Budge and Hans Keman

in Parties and Democracy: Coalition Formation and Government Functioning in Twenty States

Published in print:
1993
Published Online:
November 2003
ISBN:
9780198279259
eISBN:
9780191598883
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0198279256.003.0004
Subject:
Political Science, Comparative Politics

Examines whether the hierarchical rules for government formation actually do describe the way parties form governments in the 20 post‐war democracies. An overall predictive success of 0.81 of all ... More


The Giving Reasons Requirement

Martin Shapiro

in On Law, Politics, and Judicialization

Published in print:
2002
Published Online:
November 2003
ISBN:
9780199256488
eISBN:
9780191600234
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0199256489.003.0007
Subject:
Political Science, Comparative Politics

To sustain a viable social science of law and courts, testable propositions, appropriate research designs for testing those hypotheses, and comparative materials are needed; Ch. 4, and the two papers ... More


The European Court and Integration

Alec Stone Sweet and Thomas Brunell

in On Law, Politics, and Judicialization

Published in print:
2002
Published Online:
November 2003
ISBN:
9780199256488
eISBN:
9780191600234
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0199256489.003.0008
Subject:
Political Science, Comparative Politics

To sustain a viable social science of law and courts, testable propositions, appropriate research designs for testing those hypotheses, and comparative materials are needed; Ch. 4, and the two papers ... More


* SEMANTIC MIMICRY

Mark Wilson

in Wandering Significance: An Essay on Conceptual Behaviour

Published in print:
2006
Published Online:
January 2007
ISBN:
9780199269259
eISBN:
9780191710155
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199269259.003.0009
Subject:
Philosophy, Philosophy of Language

Distinct forms of linguistic strategy can masquerade for one another quite ably — early chapters illustrated how serious philosophical confusions often arise when a facade-structured language is ... More


Introduction

Michael A Bishop and J. D. Trout

in Epistemology and the Psychology of Human Judgment

Published in print:
2005
Published Online:
July 2005
ISBN:
9780195162295
eISBN:
9780199835539
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0195162293.003.0001
Subject:
Philosophy, Metaphysics/Epistemology

This introductory chapter presents an overview of the subsequent chapters in this book which will discuss topics such as epistemological theory, Statistical Prediction Rules, Strategic Reliabilism, ... More


The Model-Based Approach

Raymond L. Chambers and Robert G. Clark

in An Introduction to Model-Based Survey Sampling with Applications

Published in print:
2012
Published Online:
May 2012
ISBN:
9780198566625
eISBN:
9780191738449
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198566625.003.0002
Subject:
Mathematics, Probability / Statistics

The model-based (or prediction) approach to sample survey inference is described. Population values of variables of interest are assumed to be generated by a stochastic model, the so-called ... More


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