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How to Improve Bayesian Reasoning without Instruction

Gerd Gigerenzer

in Adaptive Thinking: Rationality in the Real World

Published in print:
2002
Published Online:
October 2011
ISBN:
9780195153729
eISBN:
9780199849222
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195153729.003.0006
Subject:
Philosophy, General

This chapter defines the concepts of natural sampling, natural frequencies, and reports experimental evidence for the impact of various external representations on statistical thinking. The mental ... More


Dynamics of Inductive Inference in a Unified Framework

Itzhak Gilboa, Larry Samuelson, and David Schmeidler

in Analogies and Theories: Formal Models of Reasoning

Published in print:
2015
Published Online:
May 2015
ISBN:
9780198738022
eISBN:
9780191801419
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198738022.003.0004
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Econometrics

This chapter presents a formal model that captures both case‐based and rule‐based reasoning. The model is general enough to describe Bayesian reasoning, which may be viewed as an extreme example of ... More


Why Rare Things Are Precious: How Rarity Benefits Inference

Craig R. M. McKenzie and Valerie M. Chase

in Ecological Rationality: Intelligence in the World

Published in print:
2012
Published Online:
May 2012
ISBN:
9780195315448
eISBN:
9780199932429
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195315448.003.0089
Subject:
Psychology, Cognitive Psychology, Human-Technology Interaction

This chapter reviews evidence showing that people are remarkably sensitive to the rarity of events when making inferences about them. Indeed, people are so attuned to event rarity that their implicit ... More


How to Make Cognitive Illusions Disappear

Gerd Gigerenzer

in Adaptive Thinking: Rationality in the Real World

Published in print:
2002
Published Online:
October 2011
ISBN:
9780195153729
eISBN:
9780199849222
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195153729.003.0012
Subject:
Philosophy, General

Cognitive illusions have been linked to perceptual illusions, suggesting that they are “inevitable illusions”. This chapter criticizes the narrow norms that make humans look irrational and shows how ... More


Analogies and Theories: Formal Models of Reasoning

Itzhak Gilboa, Larry Samuelson, and David Schmeidler

Published in print:
2015
Published Online:
May 2015
ISBN:
9780198738022
eISBN:
9780191801419
Item type:
book
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198738022.001.0001
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Econometrics

The book describes formal models of reasoning that are aimed at capturing the way that economic agents and decision makers in general think about their environment and make predictions based on their ... More


Clinical Judgment

Marcel Boumans

in Science Outside the Laboratory: Measurement in Field Science and Economics

Published in print:
2015
Published Online:
May 2015
ISBN:
9780199388288
eISBN:
9780199388318
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199388288.003.0005
Subject:
Philosophy, Philosophy of Science

Judgment is needed as an additional source of knowledge in measurement. This chapter aims to clarify what kind of judgment is referred to and what it is not. Judgment is defined in the Kantian sense; ... More


Algorithms, Agents, and Ontologies

Paul Kockelman

in The Art of Interpretation in the Age of Computation

Published in print:
2017
Published Online:
July 2017
ISBN:
9780190636531
eISBN:
9780190636562
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780190636531.003.0007
Subject:
Linguistics, Sociolinguistics / Anthropological Linguistics

This chapter details the inner workings of spam filters, algorithmic devices that separate desirable messages from undesirable messages. It argues that such filters are a particularly important kind ... More


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