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How to Improve Bayesian Reasoning without Instruction

Gerd Gigerenzer

in Adaptive Thinking: Rationality in the Real World

Published in print:
2002
Published Online:
October 2011
ISBN:
9780195153729
eISBN:
9780199849222
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195153729.003.0006
Subject:
Philosophy, General

This chapter defines the concepts of natural sampling, natural frequencies, and reports experimental evidence for the impact of various external representations on statistical thinking. The mental ... More


Innateness and (Bayesian) Visual Perception: Reconciling Nativism and Development

Brian J. Scholl

in The Innate Mind: Structure and Contents

Published in print:
2005
Published Online:
January 2007
ISBN:
9780195179675
eISBN:
9780199869794
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195179675.003.0003
Subject:
Philosophy, Metaphysics/Epistemology

This chapter explores a way in which visual processing may involve innate constraints and attempts to show how such processing overcomes one enduring challenge to nativism. In particular, many ... More


Murder and (of?) the Likelihood Principle: A Trialogue

Jie W Weiss and David J Weiss

in A Science of Decision Making: The Legacy of Ward Edwards

Published in print:
2008
Published Online:
January 2009
ISBN:
9780195322989
eISBN:
9780199869206
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195322989.003.0017
Subject:
Psychology, Cognitive Psychology

The Likelihood Principle of Bayesian inference asserts that only likelihoods matter to single-stage inference. A likelihood is the probability of evidence given a hypothesis multiplied by a positive ... More


Rational Statistical Inference and Cognitive Development

Fei Xu

in The Innate Mind, Volume 3: Foundations and the Future

Published in print:
2008
Published Online:
January 2008
ISBN:
9780195332834
eISBN:
9780199868117
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195332834.003.0010
Subject:
Philosophy, Philosophy of Mind

This chapter advocates a view that is a substantive middle ground between the extreme versions of nativism and empiricism — a view dubbed ‘rational constructivism’. This is a view that commits us to ... More


Humans' Multisensory Perception, from Integration to Segregation, Follows Bayesian Inference

Ladan Shams and Ulrik Beierholm

in Sensory Cue Integration

Published in print:
2011
Published Online:
September 2012
ISBN:
9780195387247
eISBN:
9780199918379
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195387247.003.0013
Subject:
Psychology, Cognitive Neuroscience, Cognitive Psychology

This chapter first discusses experimental findings showing that multisensory perception encompasses a spectrum of phenomena ranging from full integration (or fusion), to partial integration, to ... More


Decision Theory and Bayesian Inference

Luc Bauwens, Michel Lubrano, and Jean-François Richard

in Bayesian Inference in Dynamic Econometric Models

Published in print:
2000
Published Online:
September 2011
ISBN:
9780198773122
eISBN:
9780191695315
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198773122.003.0001
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Econometrics

This chapter discusses the relationship between mathematical statistics, decision theory, and the application of Bayesian inference to econometrics. It analyses the Bayesian approach to decision ... More


Bayesian Statistics and Linear Regression

Luc Bauwens, Michel Lubrano, and Jean-François Richard

in Bayesian Inference in Dynamic Econometric Models

Published in print:
2000
Published Online:
September 2011
ISBN:
9780198773122
eISBN:
9780191695315
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198773122.003.0002
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Econometrics

This chapter presents the basic concepts and tools that are useful for modelling and for Bayesian inference. It defines density kernels useful for simplifying notation and computations and explains ... More


Intuitive Theories as Grammars for Causal Inference

Joshua B. Tenenbaum, Thomas L. Griffiths, and Sourabh Niyogi

in Causal Learning: Psychology, Philosophy, and Computation

Published in print:
2007
Published Online:
April 2010
ISBN:
9780195176803
eISBN:
9780199958511
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195176803.003.0020
Subject:
Psychology, Developmental Psychology

This chapter presents a framework for understanding the structure, function, and acquisition of causal theories from a rational computational perspective. Using a “reverse engineering” approach, it ... More


Semiparametric Mixed Models for Longitudinal Data

Ludwig Fahrmeir and Thomas Kneib

in Bayesian Smoothing and Regression for Longitudinal, Spatial and Event History Data

Published in print:
2011
Published Online:
September 2011
ISBN:
9780199533022
eISBN:
9780191728501
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199533022.003.0004
Subject:
Mathematics, Probability / Statistics, Biostatistics

This chapter considers Bayesian inference in semiparametric mixed models (SPMMs) for longitudinal data. Section 4.1 assumes Gaussian smoothness priors, focusing on Bayesian P-splines in combination ... More


Basic Concepts for Smoothing and Semiparametric Regression

Ludwig Fahrmeir and Thomas Kneib

in Bayesian Smoothing and Regression for Longitudinal, Spatial and Event History Data

Published in print:
2011
Published Online:
September 2011
ISBN:
9780199533022
eISBN:
9780191728501
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199533022.003.0002
Subject:
Mathematics, Probability / Statistics, Biostatistics

This chapter reviews basic concepts for smoothing and semiparametric regression based on roughness penalties or — from a Bayesian perspective — corresponding smoothness priors. In particular, it ... More


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