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Bayes's Theorem

Richard Swinburne (ed.)

Published in print:
2005
Published Online:
January 2012
ISBN:
9780197263419
eISBN:
9780191734175
Item type:
book
Publisher:
British Academy
DOI:
10.5871/bacad/9780197263419.001.0001
Subject:
Philosophy, Logic/Philosophy of Mathematics

Bayes' theorem is a tool for assessing how probable evidence makes some hypothesis. The papers in this book consider the worth and applicability of the theorem. The book sets out the philosophical ... More


Plausible Reasoning

David Hodgson

in Rationality + Consciousness = Free Will

Published in print:
2012
Published Online:
May 2012
ISBN:
9780199845309
eISBN:
9780199932269
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199845309.003.0004
Subject:
Philosophy, Philosophy of Mind, General

In Chapter 3, I consider one very important aspect of our rationality, namely our ability to engage in plausible reasoning; that is, reasoning in which the premises or data do not entail the ... More


The Logic of Scientific Discovery

Colin Howson

in Hume's Problem: Induction and the Justification of Belief

Published in print:
2000
Published Online:
November 2003
ISBN:
9780198250371
eISBN:
9780191597749
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0198250371.003.0009
Subject:
Philosophy, Philosophy of Science

Applies the results of Ch. 7 to scientific methodology and shows that they give a logical interpretation of the subjective Bayesian theory of inductive inference. This theory is therefore no more ... More


The Justification of Explanation

Richard Swinburne

in The Existence of God

Published in print:
2004
Published Online:
September 2007
ISBN:
9780199271672
eISBN:
9780191709357
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199271672.003.0004
Subject:
Philosophy, Philosophy of Religion

An explanatory hypothesis (whether of the personal or scientific kind) is probable in so far as it makes probable the occurrence of many observed phenomena, the occurrence of which is not probable ... More


Simple Bayesian Models

N. Thompson Hobbs and Mevin B. Hooten

in Bayesian Models: A Statistical Primer for Ecologists

Published in print:
2015
Published Online:
October 2017
ISBN:
9780691159287
eISBN:
9781400866557
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Princeton University Press
DOI:
10.23943/princeton/9780691159287.003.0005
Subject:
Biology, Ecology

This chapter lays out the basic principles of Bayesian inference, building on the concepts of probability developed in Chapter 3. It seeks to use the rules of probability to show how Bayes' theorem ... More


Bayes’s Theorem and Weighing Evidence by Juries

A. P. Dawid

in Bayes's Theorem

Published in print:
2005
Published Online:
January 2012
ISBN:
9780197263419
eISBN:
9780191734175
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
British Academy
DOI:
10.5871/bacad/9780197263419.003.0004
Subject:
Philosophy, Logic/Philosophy of Mathematics

This chapter discusses Bayes's theorem and the weighing of evidence by the juries. It first examines statistics and the law, before moving on to testing between two hypotheses in court. ... More


Decision Technology

Jie W Weiss and David J Weiss

in A Science of Decision Making: The Legacy of Ward Edwards

Published in print:
2008
Published Online:
January 2009
ISBN:
9780195322989
eISBN:
9780199869206
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195322989.003.0032
Subject:
Psychology, Cognitive Psychology

This chapter focuses on decision technology—the rules and tools that help us make wiser decisions. It begins by reviewing the three rules that are at the heart of most traditional decision ... More


Introduction*

Richard Swinburne

in Bayes's Theorem

Published in print:
2005
Published Online:
January 2012
ISBN:
9780197263419
eISBN:
9780191734175
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
British Academy
DOI:
10.5871/bacad/9780197263419.003.0001
Subject:
Philosophy, Logic/Philosophy of Mathematics

This chapter introduces Bayes' Theorem, which is primarily concerned with probability. It discusses some of the different kinds of probability, such as statistical probability, before moving on to a ... More


 What Doctors Must Know about Medical Practice

Bernard Gert, Charles M. Culver, and K. Danner Clouser

in Bioethics: A systematic approach

Published in print:
2006
Published Online:
September 2006
ISBN:
9780195159066
eISBN:
9780199786466
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0195159063.003.0008
Subject:
Philosophy, Moral Philosophy

This chapter shows the importance of recognizing the probabilistic nature of medical diagnosis and treatment. It discusses the possibly serious effects of physicians not understanding Bayes theorem, ... More


The Criteria of Logical Probability

Richard Swinburne

in Epistemic Justification

Published in print:
2001
Published Online:
November 2003
ISBN:
9780199243792
eISBN:
9780191598524
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0199243794.003.0005
Subject:
Philosophy, Metaphysics/Epistemology

The logical probability of a proposition on another proposition is the true measure of how probable the latter makes the former. The central case of this concerns how likely some evidence makes some ... More


Evidence and Probability Data

Steven J. Osterlind

in The Error of Truth: How History and Mathematics Came Together to Form Our Character and Shape Our Worldview

Published in print:
2019
Published Online:
January 2019
ISBN:
9780198831600
eISBN:
9780191869532
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/oso/9780198831600.003.0006
Subject:
Mathematics, Logic / Computer Science / Mathematical Philosophy

This chapter discusses evidence and probability data with particular attention on Bayesian estimation. The Protestant ethic slowed probability developments in the United States, but the idea of ... More


Ultimate Explanation and Prior Probability

Herman Philipse

in God in the Age of Science?: A Critique of Religious Reason

Published in print:
2012
Published Online:
May 2012
ISBN:
9780199697533
eISBN:
9780191738470
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199697533.003.0011
Subject:
Philosophy, Philosophy of Religion, Metaphysics/Epistemology

Suppose for the sake of argument that theism is a meaningful and coherent theory with predictive power. Then we should wonder how probable it is that theism is true, given the total evidence for and ... More


Bayesianism

Brian D. Haig

in The Philosophy of Quantitative Methods: Understanding Statistics

Published in print:
2018
Published Online:
January 2018
ISBN:
9780190222055
eISBN:
9780190871734
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/oso/9780190222055.003.0004
Subject:
Psychology, Social Psychology

Chapter 4 focuses on Bayesian confirmation theory, a formal theory of reasoning based on probability theory. It deals with important, and related, general ideas, such as rationality, confirmation, ... More


The Balance of Probability

Richard Swinburne

in The Resurrection of God Incarnate

Published in print:
2003
Published Online:
November 2003
ISBN:
9780199257461
eISBN:
9780191598616
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0199257469.003.0014
Subject:
Philosophy, Philosophy of Religion

Summarizes the argument of the book. Given only a moderate amount of evidence from natural theology in favour of the existence of God and his having reason to become incarnate among humans, there is ... More


Bayesians versus Frequentists

Peter Coles

in From Cosmos to Chaos: The Science of Unpredictability

Published in print:
2006
Published Online:
January 2010
ISBN:
9780198567622
eISBN:
9780191718250
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198567622.003.0004
Subject:
Physics, Theoretical, Computational, and Statistical Physics

There are two competing interpretations of probability. One is the view that probabilities should be interpreted as frequencies in some large ensemble of repeated experiments under identical ... More


Chance and Probability

Colin Howson

in Hume's Problem: Induction and the Justification of Belief

Published in print:
2000
Published Online:
November 2003
ISBN:
9780198250371
eISBN:
9780191597749
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0198250371.003.0010
Subject:
Philosophy, Philosophy of Science

Considers the nature of chance and its role in statistical hypotheses. It is argued that the best way to understand chance is as tendency, naturally measured by the frequency in repeated trials of ... More


Symmetries of Probability Kinematics

Bas C. van Fraassen

in Laws and Symmetry

Published in print:
1989
Published Online:
November 2003
ISBN:
9780198248606
eISBN:
9780191597459
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0198248601.003.0013
Subject:
Philosophy, Philosophy of Science

While it was argued earlier in the book that no rule‐governed notion of rational opinion change could be adequate, there are certainly patterns of normal opinion change (updating in response to new ... More


Coda: ‘Of Miracles’

Colin Howson

in Hume's Problem: Induction and the Justification of Belief

Published in print:
2000
Published Online:
November 2003
ISBN:
9780198250371
eISBN:
9780191597749
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0198250371.003.0012
Subject:
Philosophy, Philosophy of Science

The coda discusses Hume's famous account of miracles in the Enquiry, and his criterion for belief in miracles, and shows that it amounts to a simple argument in the probability calculus.


Bayesian Statistics 9

José M. Bernardo, M. J. Bayarri, James O. Berger, A. P. Dawid, David Heckerman, Adrian F. M. Smith, and Mike West (eds)

Published in print:
2011
Published Online:
January 2012
ISBN:
9780199694587
eISBN:
9780191731921
Item type:
book
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199694587.001.0001
Subject:
Mathematics, Probability / Statistics

The Valencia International Meetings on Bayesian Statistics – established in 1979 and held every four years – have been the forum for a definitive overview of current concerns and activities in ... More


The Justification of Explanation

Richard Swinburne

in The Existence of God

Published in print:
1991
Published Online:
November 2003
ISBN:
9780198239635
eISBN:
9780191598609
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0198239637.003.0004
Subject:
Philosophy, Philosophy of Religion

An explanatory hypothesis (whether of the personal or scientific kind) is probable insofar as it makes probable the occurrence of many observed phenomena, the occurrence of which is not probable ... More


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