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Plausible Reasoning

David Hodgson

in Rationality + Consciousness = Free Will

Published in print:
2012
Published Online:
May 2012
ISBN:
9780199845309
eISBN:
9780199932269
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199845309.003.0004
Subject:
Philosophy, Philosophy of Mind, General

In Chapter 3, I consider one very important aspect of our rationality, namely our ability to engage in plausible reasoning; that is, reasoning in which the premises or data do not entail the ... More


Introduction*

Richard Swinburne

in Bayes's Theorem

Published in print:
2005
Published Online:
January 2012
ISBN:
9780197263419
eISBN:
9780191734175
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
British Academy
DOI:
10.5871/bacad/9780197263419.003.0001
Subject:
Philosophy, Logic/Philosophy of Mathematics

This chapter introduces Bayes' Theorem, which is primarily concerned with probability. It discusses some of the different kinds of probability, such as statistical probability, before moving on to a ... More


The Logic of Scientific Discovery

Colin Howson

in Hume's Problem: Induction and the Justification of Belief

Published in print:
2000
Published Online:
November 2003
ISBN:
9780198250371
eISBN:
9780191597749
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0198250371.003.0009
Subject:
Philosophy, Philosophy of Science

Applies the results of Ch. 7 to scientific methodology and shows that they give a logical interpretation of the subjective Bayesian theory of inductive inference. This theory is therefore no more ... More


The Justification of Explanation

Richard Swinburne

in The Existence of God

Published in print:
2004
Published Online:
September 2007
ISBN:
9780199271672
eISBN:
9780191709357
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199271672.003.0004
Subject:
Philosophy, Philosophy of Religion

An explanatory hypothesis (whether of the personal or scientific kind) is probable in so far as it makes probable the occurrence of many observed phenomena, the occurrence of which is not probable ... More


The Criteria of Logical Probability

Richard Swinburne

in Epistemic Justification

Published in print:
2001
Published Online:
November 2003
ISBN:
9780199243792
eISBN:
9780191598524
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0199243794.003.0005
Subject:
Philosophy, Metaphysics/Epistemology

The logical probability of a proposition on another proposition is the true measure of how probable the latter makes the former. The central case of this concerns how likely some evidence makes some ... More


Bayesian Statistics 9

José M. Bernardo, M. J. Bayarri, James O. Berger, A. P. Dawid, David Heckerman, Adrian F. M. Smith, and Mike West (eds)

Published in print:
2011
Published Online:
January 2012
ISBN:
9780199694587
eISBN:
9780191731921
Item type:
book
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199694587.001.0001
Subject:
Mathematics, Probability / Statistics

The Valencia International Meetings on Bayesian Statistics – established in 1979 and held every four years – have been the forum for a definitive overview of current concerns and activities in ... More


Achinstein and Whewell on Theoretical Coherence

Gregory J Morgan

in Philosophy of Science Matters: The Philosophy of Peter Achinstein

Published in print:
2011
Published Online:
May 2011
ISBN:
9780199738625
eISBN:
9780199894642
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199738625.003.0012
Subject:
Philosophy, Philosophy of Science

In his Particles and Waves, Peter Achinstein gives a precise probabilistic version of theoretical coherence inspired by William Whewell's somewhat vague notion of coherence. Whewell believed that as ... More


The Justification of Explanation

Richard Swinburne

in The Existence of God

Published in print:
1991
Published Online:
November 2003
ISBN:
9780198239635
eISBN:
9780191598609
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/0198239637.003.0004
Subject:
Philosophy, Philosophy of Religion

An explanatory hypothesis (whether of the personal or scientific kind) is probable insofar as it makes probable the occurrence of many observed phenomena, the occurrence of which is not probable ... More


Justifying Belief in Improbable Events

Larry Shapiro

in The Miracle Myth: Why Belief in the Resurrection and the Supernatural is Unjustified

Published in print:
2016
Published Online:
September 2017
ISBN:
9780231178402
eISBN:
9780231542142
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Columbia University Press
DOI:
10.7312/columbia/9780231178402.003.0004
Subject:
Religion, Religion and Society

Miracles are supposed to be extraordinarily rare. But a mathematical result shows that the rarer a phenomenon, the more reliable any testimony regarding its occurrence must be in order for us to be ... More


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