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Developing predictive models

E. J. Milner-Gulland and Marcus Rowcliffe

in Conservation and Sustainable Use: A Handbook of Techniques

Published in print:
2007
Published Online:
January 2008
ISBN:
9780198530367
eISBN:
9780191713095
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198530367.003.0005
Subject:
Biology, Biodiversity / Conservation Biology

The effective management of natural resources use requires a mechanistic understanding of the system, not just correlations between variables of the kind discussed in Chapter 4. Understanding may ... More


Hierarchical Bayesian Models

N. Thompson Hobbs and Mevin B. Hooten

in Bayesian Models: A Statistical Primer for Ecologists

Published in print:
2015
Published Online:
October 2017
ISBN:
9780691159287
eISBN:
9781400866557
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Princeton University Press
DOI:
10.23943/princeton/9780691159287.003.0006
Subject:
Biology, Ecology

This chapter seeks to explain hierarchical models and how they differ from simple Bayesian models and to illustrate building hierarchical models using mathematically correct expressions. It begins ... More


Simple Bayesian Models

N. Thompson Hobbs and Mevin B. Hooten

in Bayesian Models: A Statistical Primer for Ecologists

Published in print:
2015
Published Online:
October 2017
ISBN:
9780691159287
eISBN:
9781400866557
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Princeton University Press
DOI:
10.23943/princeton/9780691159287.003.0005
Subject:
Biology, Ecology

This chapter lays out the basic principles of Bayesian inference, building on the concepts of probability developed in Chapter 3. It seeks to use the rules of probability to show how Bayes' theorem ... More


Bayesian Models: A Statistical Primer for Ecologists

N. Thompson Hobbs and Mevin B. Hooten

Published in print:
2015
Published Online:
October 2017
ISBN:
9780691159287
eISBN:
9781400866557
Item type:
book
Publisher:
Princeton University Press
DOI:
10.23943/princeton/9780691159287.001.0001
Subject:
Biology, Ecology

Bayesian modeling has become an indispensable tool for ecological research because it is uniquely suited to deal with complexity in a statistically coherent way. This book provides a comprehensive ... More


Writing Bayesian Models

N. Thompson Hobbs and Mevin B. Hooten

in Bayesian Models: A Statistical Primer for Ecologists

Published in print:
2015
Published Online:
October 2017
ISBN:
9780691159287
eISBN:
9781400866557
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Princeton University Press
DOI:
10.23943/princeton/9780691159287.003.0010
Subject:
Biology, Ecology

This chapter offers a general set of steps for writing models to assist the researcher in formulating their own approach to the Bayesian model. The crucial skill of specifying models is often ... More


Spatial variation in risk

Dirk U. Pfeiffer, Timothy P. Robinson, Mark Stevenson, Kim B. Stevens, David J. Rogers, and Archie C. A. Clements

in Spatial Analysis in Epidemiology

Published in print:
2008
Published Online:
September 2008
ISBN:
9780198509882
eISBN:
9780191709128
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198509882.003.0006
Subject:
Biology, Disease Ecology / Epidemiology

This chapter discusses spatial variation in risk. Epidemiological disease investigations should include an assessment of the spatial variation of disease risk, as this may provide important clues ... More


Preview

N. Thompson Hobbs and Mevin B. Hooten

in Bayesian Models: A Statistical Primer for Ecologists

Published in print:
2015
Published Online:
October 2017
ISBN:
9780691159287
eISBN:
9781400866557
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Princeton University Press
DOI:
10.23943/princeton/9780691159287.003.0001
Subject:
Biology, Ecology

This chapter sketches an approach to inference applicable to an enormous range of research problems—one that can be understood from first principles and that can be unambiguously communicated to ... More


Optimal Random Exploration for Trade‐related Nonindigenous Species Risk

Michael Springborn, Christopher Costello, and Peyton Ferrier

in Bioinvasions and Globalization: Ecology, Economics, Management, and Policy

Published in print:
2009
Published Online:
May 2010
ISBN:
9780199560158
eISBN:
9780191721557
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199560158.003.0010
Subject:
Biology, Ecology, Biodiversity / Conservation Biology

This chapter identifies variables from the port inspection setting that influence the gains to exploration via random inspections. It begins by describing a Bayesian learning model of trade-related ... More


Analysis of Short-term Selection Experiments: 2. Mixed-model and Bayesian Approaches

Bruce Walsh and Michael Lynch

in Evolution and Selection of Quantitative Traits

Published in print:
2018
Published Online:
September 2018
ISBN:
9780198830870
eISBN:
9780191868986
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/oso/9780198830870.003.0019
Subject:
Biology, Evolutionary Biology / Genetics, Biochemistry / Molecular Biology

When the full pedigree of individuals whose values (records) were used in the selection decisions during an experiment (or breeding program) is known, LS analysis can be replaced by mixed models and ... More


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