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## Developing predictive models

*E. J. Milner-Gulland and Marcus Rowcliffe*

### in Conservation and Sustainable Use: A Handbook of Techniques

- Published in print:
- 2007
- Published Online:
- January 2008
- ISBN:
- 9780198530367
- eISBN:
- 9780191713095
- Item type:
- chapter

- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198530367.003.0005
- Subject:
- Biology, Biodiversity / Conservation Biology

The effective management of natural resources use requires a mechanistic understanding of the system, not just correlations between variables of the kind discussed in Chapter 4. Understanding may ... More

## Hierarchical Bayesian Models

*N. Thompson Hobbs and Mevin B. Hooten*

### in Bayesian Models: A Statistical Primer for Ecologists

- Published in print:
- 2015
- Published Online:
- October 2017
- ISBN:
- 9780691159287
- eISBN:
- 9781400866557
- Item type:
- chapter

- Publisher:
- Princeton University Press
- DOI:
- 10.23943/princeton/9780691159287.003.0006
- Subject:
- Biology, Ecology

This chapter seeks to explain hierarchical models and how they differ from simple Bayesian models and to illustrate building hierarchical models using mathematically correct expressions. It begins ... More

## Simple Bayesian Models

*N. Thompson Hobbs and Mevin B. Hooten*

### in Bayesian Models: A Statistical Primer for Ecologists

- Published in print:
- 2015
- Published Online:
- October 2017
- ISBN:
- 9780691159287
- eISBN:
- 9781400866557
- Item type:
- chapter

- Publisher:
- Princeton University Press
- DOI:
- 10.23943/princeton/9780691159287.003.0005
- Subject:
- Biology, Ecology

This chapter lays out the basic principles of Bayesian inference, building on the concepts of probability developed in Chapter 3. It seeks to use the rules of probability to show how Bayes' theorem ... More

## Bayesian Models: A Statistical Primer for Ecologists

*N. Thompson Hobbs and Mevin B. Hooten*

- Published in print:
- 2015
- Published Online:
- October 2017
- ISBN:
- 9780691159287
- eISBN:
- 9781400866557
- Item type:
- book

- Publisher:
- Princeton University Press
- DOI:
- 10.23943/princeton/9780691159287.001.0001
- Subject:
- Biology, Ecology

Bayesian modeling has become an indispensable tool for ecological research because it is uniquely suited to deal with complexity in a statistically coherent way. This book provides a comprehensive ... More

## Writing Bayesian Models

*N. Thompson Hobbs and Mevin B. Hooten*

### in Bayesian Models: A Statistical Primer for Ecologists

- Published in print:
- 2015
- Published Online:
- October 2017
- ISBN:
- 9780691159287
- eISBN:
- 9781400866557
- Item type:
- chapter

- Publisher:
- Princeton University Press
- DOI:
- 10.23943/princeton/9780691159287.003.0010
- Subject:
- Biology, Ecology

This chapter offers a general set of steps for writing models to assist the researcher in formulating their own approach to the Bayesian model. The crucial skill of specifying models is often ... More

## Spatial variation in risk

*Dirk U. Pfeiffer, Timothy P. Robinson, Mark Stevenson, Kim B. Stevens, David J. Rogers, and Archie C. A. Clements*

### in Spatial Analysis in Epidemiology

- Published in print:
- 2008
- Published Online:
- September 2008
- ISBN:
- 9780198509882
- eISBN:
- 9780191709128
- Item type:
- chapter

- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198509882.003.0006
- Subject:
- Biology, Disease Ecology / Epidemiology

This chapter discusses spatial variation in risk. Epidemiological disease investigations should include an assessment of the spatial variation of disease risk, as this may provide important clues ... More

## Preview

*N. Thompson Hobbs and Mevin B. Hooten*

### in Bayesian Models: A Statistical Primer for Ecologists

- Published in print:
- 2015
- Published Online:
- October 2017
- ISBN:
- 9780691159287
- eISBN:
- 9781400866557
- Item type:
- chapter

- Publisher:
- Princeton University Press
- DOI:
- 10.23943/princeton/9780691159287.003.0001
- Subject:
- Biology, Ecology

This chapter sketches an approach to inference applicable to an enormous range of research problems—one that can be understood from first principles and that can be unambiguously communicated to ... More

## Optimal Random Exploration for Trade‐related Nonindigenous Species Risk

*Michael Springborn, Christopher Costello, and Peyton Ferrier*

### in Bioinvasions and Globalization: Ecology, Economics, Management, and Policy

- Published in print:
- 2009
- Published Online:
- May 2010
- ISBN:
- 9780199560158
- eISBN:
- 9780191721557
- Item type:
- chapter

- Publisher:
- Oxford University Press
- DOI:
- 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199560158.003.0010
- Subject:
- Biology, Ecology, Biodiversity / Conservation Biology

This chapter identifies variables from the port inspection setting that influence the gains to exploration via random inspections. It begins by describing a Bayesian learning model of trade-related ... More

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