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Predictocracy: Market Mechanisms for Public and Private Decision Making

Michael Abramowicz

Published in print:
2008
Published Online:
October 2013
ISBN:
9780300115994
eISBN:
9780300144956
Item type:
book
Publisher:
Yale University Press
DOI:
10.12987/yale/9780300115994.001.0001
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Economic Systems

Predicting the future is serious business for virtually all public and private institutions because they must often make important decisions based on such predictions. This book explores how ... More


The Media

Michael Abramowicz

in Predictocracy: Market Mechanisms for Public and Private Decision Making

Published in print:
2008
Published Online:
October 2013
ISBN:
9780300115994
eISBN:
9780300144956
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Yale University Press
DOI:
10.12987/yale/9780300115994.003.0001
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Economic Systems

This chapter suggests that prediction markets can provide objective gauges of expert consensus for the media to pass along to the public. Experience suggests that prediction markets are generally ... More


Policy Analysts

Michael Abramowicz

in Predictocracy: Market Mechanisms for Public and Private Decision Making

Published in print:
2008
Published Online:
October 2013
ISBN:
9780300115994
eISBN:
9780300144956
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Yale University Press
DOI:
10.12987/yale/9780300115994.003.0002
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Economic Systems

This chapter elaborates on the argument that prediction markets can help aggregate information, noting that at times, what prediction markets aggregate might more accurately be understood as ... More


Businesses

Michael Abramowicz

in Predictocracy: Market Mechanisms for Public and Private Decision Making

Published in print:
2008
Published Online:
October 2013
ISBN:
9780300115994
eISBN:
9780300144956
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Yale University Press
DOI:
10.12987/yale/9780300115994.003.0003
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Economic Systems

This chapter introduces some possible applications of prediction markets for businesses. One problem that prediction markets might help businesses overcome is “optimism bias,” a tendency that people ... More


Committees

Michael Abramowicz

in Predictocracy: Market Mechanisms for Public and Private Decision Making

Published in print:
2008
Published Online:
October 2013
ISBN:
9780300115994
eISBN:
9780300144956
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Yale University Press
DOI:
10.12987/yale/9780300115994.003.0004
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Economic Systems

This chapter suggests that prediction markets, if carefully designed, can serve as an alternative to committees. Once created, prediction markets might allow for more streamlined decision-making than ... More


Administrative Agencies

Michael Abramowicz

in Predictocracy: Market Mechanisms for Public and Private Decision Making

Published in print:
2008
Published Online:
October 2013
ISBN:
9780300115994
eISBN:
9780300144956
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Yale University Press
DOI:
10.12987/yale/9780300115994.003.0006
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Economic Systems

This chapter argues that the application of prediction markets to administrative agency decision-making offers the possibility of a distinct benefit. It has been observed that prediction markets can ... More


Public Corporations

Michael Abramowicz

in Predictocracy: Market Mechanisms for Public and Private Decision Making

Published in print:
2008
Published Online:
October 2013
ISBN:
9780300115994
eISBN:
9780300144956
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Yale University Press
DOI:
10.12987/yale/9780300115994.003.0007
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Economic Systems

This chapter explores ways in which public corporations might harness the benefits of prediction markets. A major challenge addressed by corporate law scholarship is that agency costs sometimes might ... More


Legislative Bodies

Michael Abramowicz

in Predictocracy: Market Mechanisms for Public and Private Decision Making

Published in print:
2008
Published Online:
October 2013
ISBN:
9780300115994
eISBN:
9780300144956
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Yale University Press
DOI:
10.12987/yale/9780300115994.003.0009
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Economic Systems

This chapter considers the possibility of market-based legislatures and attempts to develop the idea of text-authoring prediction markets that might be used to produce consensus “texts” of various ... More


Predictocracy

Michael Abramowicz

in Predictocracy: Market Mechanisms for Public and Private Decision Making

Published in print:
2008
Published Online:
October 2013
ISBN:
9780300115994
eISBN:
9780300144956
Item type:
chapter
Publisher:
Yale University Press
DOI:
10.12987/yale/9780300115994.003.0010
Subject:
Economics and Finance, Economic Systems

This chapter emphasizes that institutions evolve slowly and that although they may evolve too slowly, this does not justify radical change. The chapter considers two new prediction market designs: ... More


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